tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37075575849221444512024-03-18T02:48:10.138-07:00Inquisitive MythsCuriosity killed the cat. She respawned nearby.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-18571888809303997472014-05-11T18:35:00.001-07:002014-06-03T16:26:32.987-07:00[GW2] I'm an undying star!<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/e0SiyZLzegc" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Myth of Ragnarok has finished exploring Tyria - including the world versus world maps - without dying!<br />
<br />
This journey was an absurd amount of fun. The game felt much more alive with megaservers. I feel genuinely connected to my character. We've been through a struggle together, and endured. It definitely kept me motivated to play GW2 during this lull between Living Story seasons.<br />
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Orr, surprisingly, wasn't as big of a challenge as I'd expected.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EK_Yb88SjSA/U20F0sBzT-I/AAAAAAAAA3o/KkVNa4MroUE/s1600/15+-+devastation.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EK_Yb88SjSA/U20F0sBzT-I/AAAAAAAAA3o/KkVNa4MroUE/s1600/15+-+devastation.jpg" height="310" width="640" /></a></div>
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Straits of Devastation was straightforward. (Can puns kill?) The only hiccup was the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHJ72p5gDEM">Lightfoot Passage vista</a>. I saw player after player fall to their deaths on the vista, and psyched myself out. I had to swap to another warrior to practice the jumps before continuing on my hardcore character.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LfQ7Q2GffLY/U20GFI8UJVI/AAAAAAAAA3w/t6gxj8nnitg/s1600/16+-+malchor+easy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LfQ7Q2GffLY/U20GFI8UJVI/AAAAAAAAA3w/t6gxj8nnitg/s1600/16+-+malchor+easy.jpg" height="322" width="640" /></a></div>
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Malchor's Leap was once my least-favorite zone. Apparently, Orr isn't so bad without risen. We owned the temples, which made completing the skill challenges trivial. Champions were instantly killed by roving hordes of players. Even the chicken events were instantly completed. Megaservers may lead to the extinction of the risen. I'm fine with that.<br />
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<b>But what to do next?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I love this character. Playing without the trading post has breathed new life into the game. I'm enjoying the challenge of completing content without dying. I like that my character is deliberately undergeared (self-found equipment only) since it gives me a sense of progression. And I don't want to abandon the character at the end of a jumping puzzle somewhere.<br />
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So I've decided to find new challenges to tackle.<br />
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Next up:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Full exotics without dying or relying on vendors / the trading post. I'll gear up via the <a href="https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/the-megaserver-system-world-bosses-and-events/">new world boss schedule</a> and maybe a champion train or two (ewww). The yellow weapons I loot will get thrown into the mystic forge in the hopes of getting some shiny level 80 exotics.</li>
<li>Achievement hunting: I'm going to get some more experience by <strike>finishing</strike> progessing my <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Guide_to_Slayer_achievements">slayer</a> and <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Weapon_Master">weapon master</a> achievements.</li>
</ul>
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Once I'm fully-geared, I'll go back and finish the personal story - including Arah! - without dying.<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
EDIT: Or... I'll die to underwater combat. Le Sigh.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-15035909823961316002014-05-09T21:52:00.000-07:002014-05-09T21:52:52.492-07:00[GW2] Ironman Challenge: turning it up to 80<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-z-g9tMl75l8/U20CCXGulXI/AAAAAAAAA2g/JvLpKNcNkvg/s1600/myth+at+80.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-z-g9tMl75l8/U20CCXGulXI/AAAAAAAAA2g/JvLpKNcNkvg/s1600/myth+at+80.png" height="378" width="640" /></a></div>
Myth of Ragnarok is level 80!<br />
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I hit 80 with around 80% of the world complete, but was having too much fun, and so completed a few more zones. This put me at 93% world completion. This just leaves the three zones of Orr: Straights of Devastation, Malchor's Leap, and Cursed Shore.<br />
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Her story so far...<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OAHTJ3nTU5Q/U20C6LbCRYI/AAAAAAAAA2o/Vm0AUowDgIA/s1600/08+-+ashford.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OAHTJ3nTU5Q/U20C6LbCRYI/AAAAAAAAA2o/Vm0AUowDgIA/s1600/08+-+ashford.png" height="273" width="640" /></a></div>
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Each trip through Plains of Ashford starts an extended conversation of whether the charr or the humans are to blame for the destruction of the zone. Originally the land belonged to the charr. But when the gods brought humans to Tyria, they drove the charr from the land. Until the charr took it back. Which the charr nuked with the searing. So we have plenty to argue over.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iWayMYvWeyw/U20DKldIc1I/AAAAAAAAA2w/5ISpO7L97Uw/s1600/09+-+fields+of+ruin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iWayMYvWeyw/U20DKldIc1I/AAAAAAAAA2w/5ISpO7L97Uw/s1600/09+-+fields+of+ruin.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></div>
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Knock knock, now let me into the Crystal Desert.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kwQy47ZOdVw/U20DdrNQ18I/AAAAAAAAA24/1LhogC5FhQY/s1600/10+-+sorrow+in+dredgehaunt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kwQy47ZOdVw/U20DdrNQ18I/AAAAAAAAA24/1LhogC5FhQY/s1600/10+-+sorrow+in+dredgehaunt.jpg" height="288" width="640" /></a></div>
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I dreaded this vista (by Sorrow's Embrace in Dredgehaunt Cliffs) from the moment this challenge began. On my first character, I died to it oh so many times. There was swearing. Vows to never return. Developer hatred. Shame. This time? Straight to the top without issue. My friends say they made the tower easier... I think I'm just that awesome.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EeAWGAzcEM0/U20D2aAtd6I/AAAAAAAAA3A/ypW3_hdoVM0/s1600/11+-+worst+quest.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EeAWGAzcEM0/U20D2aAtd6I/AAAAAAAAA3A/ypW3_hdoVM0/s1600/11+-+worst+quest.jpg" height="180" width="320" /></a>This heart - in Fireheart Rise - is undoubtedly the single worst quest in all of Guild Wars 2. You're supposed to help escort the ghosts of loggers back to their bodies. Or defend charr children from a witch. Nope. The heart and event are both bugged. Except for one solitary logger. Every couple minutes a quest mob spawns, which can be killed for credit. Spent about a half hour sitting there to get the zone done, whispering everyone I saw to camp the spawn with me. Whoo.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-z2542Cucchc/U20ELl5GI1I/AAAAAAAAA3M/v5RXRZGZinI/s1600/12+-+timberline+returns.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-z2542Cucchc/U20ELl5GI1I/AAAAAAAAA3M/v5RXRZGZinI/s1600/12+-+timberline+returns.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></div>
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Timberline Falls. I enjoyed <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/10/gw2-clawswitz-still-alive-still-reckless.html">returning to this tower</a>. Nothing like krait with pull, immobilize, and knockback to send adrenaline through my system.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-l_nun2RFO2Y/U20Efhl_ReI/AAAAAAAAA3U/9XmJ3dw7Tcc/s1600/13+-+foreshadow.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-l_nun2RFO2Y/U20Efhl_ReI/AAAAAAAAA3U/9XmJ3dw7Tcc/s1600/13+-+foreshadow.jpg" height="286" width="640" /></a></div>
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A foreshadowing of what awaits me in Orr. I also learned a valuable lesson. Don't step on the fish heads by Tequatl. They insta-downed me, leading to terrified screams and the hope I could res before the head respawned.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5YCqV2-HywU/U20EyU7iYOI/AAAAAAAAA3c/c9KsKOeiXeA/s1600/14+-+jormag+deaths.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5YCqV2-HywU/U20EyU7iYOI/AAAAAAAAA3c/c9KsKOeiXeA/s1600/14+-+jormag+deaths.jpg" height="200" width="186" /></a>After hitting 80, I decided to give a couple world bosses a try. Jormag was fun... right up until players started getting downed / dying. I decided to hide in the back.<br />
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Along the way, I've also been looking into whether others have explored the whole map without dying. I found someone who <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/Sub-level-80-100-World-Completion">hit 100% world completion pre-level 80</a>. I've found <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/Guild-Wars-2-Solo/first#post3416644">someone else who hit 80 without dying</a>. I also saw one claim of a player exploring all of Tyria, <a href="http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/72969-guardian-level-80-no-death/">excluding the WvW maps</a>.<br />
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But, so far, I haven't been able to find someone who completed the map without death. Makes me wonder how horrible Orr will be.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-44013185690229090282014-04-25T19:50:00.000-07:002014-04-25T19:50:51.083-07:00[GW2] Ironman Challenge Update: Halfway There!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
I'm halfway there! My new warrior just hit 50% map completion in GW2.</div>
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Her story so far..</div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-x24joT6Tpjg/U1q9dkv0Z5I/AAAAAAAAA1g/KdEZO4rPzhY/s1600/01+-+divinity+dance.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-x24joT6Tpjg/U1q9dkv0Z5I/AAAAAAAAA1g/KdEZO4rPzhY/s1600/01+-+divinity+dance.jpg" height="378" width="640" /></a></div>
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I decided to finish the cities first. While exploring Divinity's Reach I ran into a naked dance party at the city entrance. Human cities, huh?<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7yszdkF1m3A/U1q9yrVtdOI/AAAAAAAAA1o/VcmrAwGSbyQ/s1600/02+-+LA+population.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7yszdkF1m3A/U1q9yrVtdOI/AAAAAAAAA1o/VcmrAwGSbyQ/s1600/02+-+LA+population.jpg" height="372" width="640" /></a></div>
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I'm really enjoying the journey so far. Because of megaservers, there are players everywhere I go, which really makes the world feel alive. I was surprised to see that even Lion's Arch had players hanging out / exploring.<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-af5Pl63G01A/U1q-QUp21oI/AAAAAAAAA1w/w588Y8ajcK4/s1600/03+-+brown+bubbles.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-af5Pl63G01A/U1q-QUp21oI/AAAAAAAAA1w/w588Y8ajcK4/s1600/03+-+brown+bubbles.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></div>
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Leveling (yet another) warrior, I'm surprised at the number of things I discover about the class. Just after hitting level 30, I noticed strange brown bubbles around my character. Apparently <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/players/Brown-stuff-floating-out-of-my-warrior">they're an effect from equipping Signet of Rage</a>. The effect is so small on my asura that I never noticed it, and I never cared about the charr enough to look closely. Another reminder of why I'm rerolling.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-V4ZXxvIp3Yk/U1q-okserVI/AAAAAAAAA14/Yj8LhxpT9LE/s1600/04+-+boring+map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-V4ZXxvIp3Yk/U1q-okserVI/AAAAAAAAA14/Yj8LhxpT9LE/s1600/04+-+boring+map.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></div>
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Gendarran Fields was the most boring map I completed. Since so many players are hanging out in Vigil Keep, most of the zone feels completely deserted. Felt like pre-megaserver leveling.<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NRyt0Efml7U/U1q-68uqEOI/AAAAAAAAA2A/0yYBi2ON1Pc/s1600/05+-+fort+vandal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NRyt0Efml7U/U1q-68uqEOI/AAAAAAAAA2A/0yYBi2ON1Pc/s1600/05+-+fort+vandal.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></div>
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Fort Vandal in Kessex Hills was a close call. Since the end of Living Story Season 1 suggested this area is about to become important, I wanted to explore the fort and hop over the walls. I reconsidered when I noticed the large numbers of level 80 champion poisoners on the walls. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE4myemgrI">Apparently they're pretty tough</a>.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PnHSNgV8JFA/U1q_fVY_8fI/AAAAAAAAA2I/7G-dYMNCDMc/s1600/06+-+i+am+death.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PnHSNgV8JFA/U1q_fVY_8fI/AAAAAAAAA2I/7G-dYMNCDMc/s1600/06+-+i+am+death.jpg" height="304" width="640" /></a></div>
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I went rooftop hopping in Ebonhawke instead. Just beneath this screenshot are two players engaging in either sappy-romance RP about returning from war... or some about-to-get-steamy ERP. Either way, it was awkward when they looked up to see my character perched like this.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hcfVmqhv__E/U1rADDsPNtI/AAAAAAAAA2Q/rJLn6YOfIdA/s1600/07+-+halfway+there.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hcfVmqhv__E/U1rADDsPNtI/AAAAAAAAA2Q/rJLn6YOfIdA/s1600/07+-+halfway+there.jpg" height="179" width="320" /></a></div>
Finishing Lornar's Pass gave me 52% map completion at level 47. I'm being much more adventurous than my last character, who hit level 80 with only 61% of the map explored (no deaths). I think this new challenge is really encouraging me to take more risks exploring the world.<br />
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Definitely <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at_f98qOGY0">looking forward</a> to what the other half of the world has to explore!<br />
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And yes, I'm <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd3wtXJmOhQ">still alive</a>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-34845660469907693962014-04-23T16:37:00.001-07:002014-04-25T12:50:45.153-07:00[GW2] Ironman Challenge, Again<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-So0KJ0MuFMM/U1hCJO_I24I/AAAAAAAAA1I/PW8PZXbUeLs/s1600/clawswitzIronman.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-So0KJ0MuFMM/U1hCJO_I24I/AAAAAAAAA1I/PW8PZXbUeLs/s1600/clawswitzIronman.jpg" height="422" width="640" /></a></div>
Just about two years ago, I started leveling Clawswitz to 80 without dying or crafting. You can read his <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/09/gw2-clawswitz-cautious-cowering-charr.html">origins tale</a>, or the <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/10/gw2-clawswitz-still-alive-still-reckless.html">update</a>.<br />
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I didn't blog about it, but shortly after coming back to GW2 I finished leveling Clawswitz. I didn't write anything because immediately after Clawswitz hit 80, I felt unsatisfied with the character. Normally, I'd start setting him up with a fashionable outfit. But Clawswitz felt clunky. <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1isd48/i_want_to_share_the_agony_of_charr_armor_and_how/">Charr look hideous in virtually every piece of armor</a>; except the cultural gear, which is a bit too spiked for me. Unable to find the right look, I just abandoned him at the end of a <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Professor_Portmatt%27s_Lab">jumping puzzle</a>.<br />
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With the roll-out of megaservers, I decided to level another warrior to 80 without dying.<br />
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Meet Myth of Ragnarok.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kwofFyzw2Cw/U1hCq26qlMI/AAAAAAAAA1Q/6tsrLA6cja0/s1600/mythOfRagnarok.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kwofFyzw2Cw/U1hCq26qlMI/AAAAAAAAA1Q/6tsrLA6cja0/s1600/mythOfRagnarok.jpg" height="306" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>Updated challenge ground rules:</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Death is permanent (on death, reroll).</li>
<li>No getting carried by friends</li>
<li>No crafting</li>
<li>No crafting gear with other characters</li>
<li>No use of the TP</li>
<li>No food</li>
<li>No <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Champion_farm">champion train</a> farming to 80</li>
<li>No experience bonus buffs (Birthday, Killstreak,...)</li>
<li>No Tomes of Knowledge</li>
<li>No dungeons</li>
<li>Any tough fight I run from must be admitted to</li>
<li>Challenge ends when I'm at 100% world completion, including WvW</li>
</ul>
<div>
While the new challenge greatly restricts access to gear, I decided to allow purchases from karma vendors. This pushes me into a risk-reward situation for getting new pieces of gear, which I enjoy. It also pushes me to unlock more skins for the wardrobe.</div>
<div>
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<b>Progress so far:</b></div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>My first character died while doing Eternal Battlegrounds at 23. I was trying to meet up with a group taking the enemy keep, and ran into two thieves instead. Never had a chance.</li>
<li>The second character died at level 2, this time in borderlands. I was outfought by a 80 warrior.</li>
</ol>
<div>
Attempt #3 is still alive, now at level 32. </div>
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I've already had two terrifying near-death experiences on the character, of course.</div>
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<div>
The first was at the spider-themed skill challenge in WvW. I decided to keep fighting with 1/20th of my hp left, and got downed. I couldn't rally off the spider-adds, since they were behind the challenge. Fortunately, I pulled off a vengeance-rally.</div>
</div>
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<div>
The second was at the <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Raven_Shaman%27s_Power_Source">Darkhoof Heights skill point</a>. I was under-leveled, and decided to attack the boss that guards the point. I wasn't paying attention, and barely made it out.</div>
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<br /></div>
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For the moment, at least, I'm s<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6ljFaKRTrI">till alive</a>.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-12015245308252293992014-04-21T19:00:00.002-07:002014-04-21T21:17:55.135-07:00[POE] Building Better Builds: Forum Posts, Part i<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZclZJbavGTw/U1XqnLZPrdI/AAAAAAAAA04/Lh6wlgme-qQ/s1600/build1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZclZJbavGTw/U1XqnLZPrdI/AAAAAAAAA04/Lh6wlgme-qQ/s1600/build1.jpg" height="338" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
I've become interested in making my Path of Exile builds better.<br />
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One way to do this is to see how other players are creating their builds. Since this is a pretty big topic, I'll first focus on passive skill tree choices by players. I'm particularly interested in these because many players post guides to their builds - including passive skill trees - on the forums. (Data time!)<br />
<br />
I grabbed the 600 most recently updated threads in each class forum and extracted build links on the first page of each of these threads. Because PoE's passive skill tree is constantly changing, I removed builds that are no longer valid with the current skilltree or were less than 80 points. Because sometimes authors post multiple versions of a build, I selected only one build from each thread (the build closest to 100 points).
This left me with 914 valid builds.<br />
<br />
<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr> <th></th> <th>Duelist </th> <th>Marauder </th> <th>Ranger </th> <th>Scion </th> <th>Shadow </th> <th>Templar </th> <th>Witch </th> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">valid builds </td> <td align="right">101.0 </td> <td align="right">106.0 </td> <td align="right">144.0 </td> <td align="right">123.0 </td> <td align="right">166.0 </td> <td align="right">112.0 </td> <td align="right">162.0 </td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">all builds </td> <td align="right">707.0 </td> <td align="right">540.0 </td> <td align="right">657.0 </td> <td align="right">732.0 </td> <td align="right">633.0 </td> <td align="right">591.0 </td> <td align="right">615.0 </td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">average posts </td> <td align="right">68.8 </td> <td align="right">79.3 </td> <td align="right">47.7 </td> <td align="right">68.2 </td> <td align="right">49.1 </td> <td align="right">58.8 </td> <td align="right">80.6 </td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">average views </td> <td align="right">25071.7 </td> <td align="right">33006.9 </td> <td align="right">17866.2 </td> <td align="right">18892.1 </td> <td align="right">14617.9 </td> <td align="right">15087.8 </td> <td align="right">32962.1 </td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Curiously, Templar has the least build options to chose from, combined with relatively few posts / views for each thread. I'm curious whether this will lead the developers to consider rebuilding the templar starting area.<br />
<br />
<b>Defensive specialization: </b><br />
Whether in a hardcore or softcore league, one of the biggest challenges in Path of Exile is simply staying alive. For this section, I'll focus on player choices to get life, energy shield, armor, and evasion. When evaluating life- or energy- based builds, I omitted any build with less than 50 of that stat (because, well, death).<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tZPp0kUp1tY/U1Xoi-9iVzI/AAAAAAAAA0w/gpa1ZJEHwu4/s1600/unweightedDefense2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tZPp0kUp1tY/U1Xoi-9iVzI/AAAAAAAAA0w/gpa1ZJEHwu4/s1600/unweightedDefense2.png" height="256" width="640" /></a></div>
A few observations:<br />
<ul>
<li>Life-based builds tend to get around 200 life, with marauder builds getting slightly more life than the other classes. I'm actually surprised at how many builds get less than 200 life, which I considered an absolute necessity. </li>
<li>Rangers and shadows tend to focus on evasion, while duelists and marauders focus on armor. </li>
<li>Of all the classes, only witch has multiple builds getting a 'reasonable' amount of energy shield for CI / low-life. </li>
</ul>
<div>
There is, of course, a potential problem with this data. The wide range of life / energy shield values suggests some of these builds simply aren't viable. For example, a large number of builds from new or inexperienced players might tend to undervalue defensive stats. To correct for this, I weighted the data by the number of posts in the thread (on the assumption that high-quality builds are more likely to get attention).</div>
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rF4oo4AVJYY/U1Xoi0UOgoI/AAAAAAAAA0s/wuQBo3mUBo0/s1600/weightedDefense2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rF4oo4AVJYY/U1Xoi0UOgoI/AAAAAAAAA0s/wuQBo3mUBo0/s1600/weightedDefense2.png" height="256" width="640" /></a><br />
While weighting the data did remove a large number of the low-defense builds, the basic story is unchanged: players tend to get at least 200 life, energy-shield based builds are uncommon, and strength-focused classes get armor while dex-focused classes get evasion. It is notable that a few high-attention builds (like cyclone marauder) tend to dominate the data.<br />
<br />
<b>Weapon specialization:</b><br />
Turning to offense, here I looked at whether a build grabbed a damage specialization node (+damage with a weapon type / spell).<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yEYacYrfPA4/U1Xoi9Mwm7I/AAAAAAAAA0o/MvFqQey055Y/s1600/unweightedOffense2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yEYacYrfPA4/U1Xoi9Mwm7I/AAAAAAAAA0o/MvFqQey055Y/s1600/unweightedOffense2.png" height="256" width="640" /></a></div>
A few features that stand out (to me):<br />
<ul>
<li>Wow, caster options are popular (even omitting elemental damage builds).</li>
<li>Ranger is overwhelmingly the most popular choice for bow builds. The lack of a bow-templar makes me consider running one.</li>
<li>One-handed builds are more popular than two-handed builds for all classes.</li>
<li>Swords are slightly more popular than axes, despite the focus on <a href="http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/Soul_Taker">soultaker</a> in the current meta, though this is potentially due to <a href="https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/690708">buzzsaw</a> builds. </li>
<li>Specializing into wands / staves are remarkably uncommon options (2.6% and 1.4% of builds, respectively). Staves make sense - other than Pillar builds, not many characters go for a staff (they're also devilishly hard to roll). But wands? I seem to remember everyone trying wander early in the league.</li>
</ul>
<b>Thoughts:</b><br />
I'm frankly a bit surprised at how few defenses many builds grab, particularly given the common refrain that 200% life is a bare minimum for PoE. I'm equally surprised at how many builds choose to specialize in a weapon, given how that limits purchasing options at endgame.<br />
<br />
There are plenty of places I'm considering taking the analysis. I'm definitely going to look at keystones. I'm also interested in some general descriptive-stats for the passive tree (shortest paths, nearest clusters) and how this influences the build meta.<br />
<br />
So many fun data adventures to be had.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-21862529959022650082014-04-17T00:42:00.000-07:002014-06-05T11:34:55.714-07:00[POE] Maps, Levels, and QuantityI love maps in Path of Exile. But I've always been curious about the details of the map drop system. Does it get harder to get higher level maps? Exactly what does quantity do? What about the desirable mods (pack size, more magic monsters, more rare monsters) - how much quantity are they worth?<br />
<br />
As usual, the forums have an abundance of speculation about these answers. But I wanted math.<br />
<br />
So I started to collect data on the maps that I've been running in PoE. Unfortunately, this kind of data gathering takes time, so I was only able to gather data on around 500 maps. Which just isn't enough data to study processes that are based on rare events.<br />
<br />
To take this further, I combined my data with a few other projects that had collected data from maps into one, larger, spreadsheet of doom. (Note: all of these sources were gathered since 1.0, which substantially changed the mapping system.)<br />
<ul>
<li>My data - <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah20UYb4x73XdEtSVEV5Y2pBZWFjN1Q0MmhyTW1McHc&output=html">link</a></li>
<li>/u/dansenMONSEN - <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/1upkh2/did_87_69er_maps_heres_my_outcome/">link</a></li>
<li>/u/jddogg - <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/1w6e6d/jddoggs_solo_500_map_log_73_maps_feel_free_to_ask/">link</a></li>
<li>/u/IcyRespawn - <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/1t3plo/data_from_twenty_lv70_maps/">link</a></li>
<li>/u/Shadowclaimer- <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/1suxgs/the_100_map_challenge/">link</a></li>
<li>/u/pyrodan2 - <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/1ta4rh/100_nemesis_map_data/">link</a></li>
<li>/u/Skyl3lazer - <a href="http://maps.skyl3lazer.com/">link</a></li>
</ul>
This gave a total 4076 map runs, covering a wide range of map levels and map quantity.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fEQ3rMDwOKw/U08nhrThpmI/AAAAAAAAAzA/yg3Eht_UsLg/s1600/overall.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fEQ3rMDwOKw/U08nhrThpmI/AAAAAAAAAzA/yg3Eht_UsLg/s1600/overall.png" height="256" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
From this data, I can take a look at the basics of map drops.<br />
<br />
<b>Map Level</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rbm_cfH4j7M/U092TFYEAsI/AAAAAAAAAzQ/nGL7qryKI_A/s1600/byLevel.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rbm_cfH4j7M/U092TFYEAsI/AAAAAAAAAzQ/nGL7qryKI_A/s1600/byLevel.png" height="256" width="640" /></a></div>
One finding is painfully apparent for anyone that runs maps in PoE: it gets harder to progress your map pool on higher level maps. For every increase in map level, the average level of maps dropped increases by 0.71. For 66 maps, the average drop is an increase in map levels (66.5). By level 70, the average drop is only 69.1, and by 78 maps the average drop is down to 74.6. Maintaining a high level map pool gets harder with each level.<br />
<br />
<b>Map Quantity</b><br />
Declining average drop level makes getting high quantity critically important for maps (since higher quantity means more maps, which increases the odds of getting equal-or-higher level maps).<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PUD2Gndr8Ho/U0-AJ8dgMBI/AAAAAAAAAzs/Potplw-dXNQ/s1600/quantity.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PUD2Gndr8Ho/U0-AJ8dgMBI/AAAAAAAAAzs/Potplw-dXNQ/s1600/quantity.png" height="256" width="640" /></a></div>
On average, I estimate that every 100% quantity increases the number of maps dropped by 0.85 maps. (Results from a negative binomial regression - full table after the break.) This, in turn, improves the chance of getting a higher level map. The same 100% quantity increases the chance of getting a higher level map by around 20%.<br />
<br />
<b>Pack Size / Magic Monsters / Rare Monsters</b><br />
But what about the desirable mods (pack size, magic monsters, rare monsters) - what effect do they have on map drops?<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Pack Size</b>: aids in getting both more and higher level maps. However, the data suggests that pack size isn't as game-breaking as others suggest. From the models, every 2% pack size is worth about 1% quantity. So a 20% pack size roll is worth only about 10% quantity - less than the other available suffixes that could roll on a map.</li>
<li><b>Magic / Rare monsters</b>: have no effect on the number of maps (or, whatever effect is there is lost to noise / too small to estimate). Rare monsters increases the likelihood of getting a higher level map (it is likely that magic monsters does too, just that the effect is fairly small). Again, the mod is about half as valuable as quantity. So a low rare monsters roll is equivalent to about 13% quantity.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>Thoughts</b><br />
These results are... surprising.<br />
<br />
While I've always been told to roll for the desirable affixes, these results suggest that they may be overrated. Of course, there is one caveat: some maps - like tunnel - don't have much room for large packs to spawn, diminishing the effect of the mod. I'll try and gather more data to evaluate this claim.<br />
<br />
I'm really surprised that the magic monsters mod didn't show any statistical significance, no matter how I looked at the data. I'm thinking this might have to do with selection effects. The problem is how highly the mod is rated: if players immediately run a map with +magic monsters regardless of the other mods, this would result in +magic monsters being associated with worse maps and fewer drops. I'll try some quasi-experimental methods out to get around this problem.<br />
<br />
I'm also surprised that 1% quantity doesn't equate to another 1% chance to get a map... this makes me think something else may be going on with the models, so I'll take another pass at the topic soon.<br />
<br />
So very excited to have data to play with!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
For the stats nerds: full table after the break.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<table style="text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;"></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td colspan="5"><em>Dependent variable:</em></td></tr>
<tr><td></td><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;"></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td colspan="2">plus</td><td colspan="3">totalMaps</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td colspan="2"><em>probit</em></td><td colspan="3"><em>negative</em></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td colspan="2"><em></em></td><td colspan="3"><em>binomial</em></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>(1)</td><td>(2)</td><td>(3)</td><td>(4)</td><td>(5)</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;"></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">Quantity</td><td>0.007<sup>***</sup></td><td>0.006<sup>***</sup></td><td>0.005<sup>***</sup></td><td>0.005<sup>***</sup></td><td>0.005<sup>***</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>(0.001)</td><td>(0.001)</td><td>(0.001)</td><td>(0.001)</td><td>(0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">Level</td><td>-0.100<sup>***</sup></td><td>-0.101<sup>***</sup></td><td>-0.003</td><td>-0.004</td><td>-0.008</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>(0.012)</td><td>(0.010)</td><td>(0.005)</td><td>(0.007)</td><td>(0.006)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">magicInfo</td><td>0.002</td><td></td><td></td><td>0.001</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>(0.002)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.001)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">rareInfo</td><td>0.003<sup>*</sup></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.002</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>(0.002)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.001)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">packInfo</td><td>0.004<sup>**</sup></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.002<sup>*</sup></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>(0.002)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.001)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">creatormapsProj1</td><td>0.059</td><td></td><td></td><td>0.067</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>(0.123)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.081)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">creatormapsProj2</td><td>-0.023</td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.007</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>(0.147)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.093)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">creatormyth</td><td>-0.027</td><td></td><td></td><td>0.056</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>(0.134)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.087)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">magicD</td><td></td><td>0.068</td><td></td><td></td><td>0.026</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td>(0.066)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.038)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">rareD</td><td></td><td>0.097</td><td></td><td></td><td>0.036</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td>(0.066)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.039)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">packD</td><td></td><td>0.141<sup>**</sup></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.052</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td>(0.065)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.038)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">Constant</td><td>6.150<sup>***</sup></td><td>6.286<sup>***</sup></td><td>0.496</td><td>0.425</td><td>0.748<sup>**</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>(0.773)</td><td>(0.635)</td><td>(0.314)</td><td>(0.439)</td><td>(0.362)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;"></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">Observations</td><td>3,040</td><td>3,040</td><td>3,040</td><td>3,040</td><td>3,040</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">Log Likelihood</td><td>-1,817.311</td><td>-1,818.414</td><td>-4,917.319</td><td>-4,914.001</td><td>-4,916.216</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">theta</td><td></td><td></td><td>44.604 (31.901)</td><td>47.676 (36.319)</td><td>45.631 (33.348)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;">Akaike Inf. Crit.</td><td>3,652.623</td><td>3,648.828</td><td>9,840.637</td><td>9,846.002</td><td>9,844.433</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;"></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>[UPDATE]</b> Anonymous wanted to know the average map drop by level, then for maps without the rare / magic mod, and then for maps with one of those mods. This excludes maps that dropped no map.<br />
<br />
<table style="text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;"></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"></td><td>level</td><td>overall</td><td>neither mod</td><td>has one mod</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>66</td><td>66.6</td><td>66.6</td><td>66.5</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>67</td><td>67.1</td><td>67.2</td><td>67</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>68</td><td>67.8</td><td>67.8</td><td>67.9</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>69</td><td>68.4</td><td>68.5</td><td>68.3</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>70</td><td>69.1</td><td>69.1</td><td>69.2</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>71</td><td>70.1</td><td>69.9</td><td>70.3</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>72</td><td>70.5</td><td>70.6</td><td>70.3</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>73</td><td>71.4</td><td>71.6</td><td>71.3</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>74</td><td>72.2</td><td>72.4</td><td>72</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>75</td><td>72.8</td><td>72.8</td><td>72.8</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>76</td><td>73.5</td><td>73.5</td><td>73.5</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>77</td><td>74.2</td><td>73.9</td><td>74.5</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align: left;"><br /></td><td>78</td><td>74.7</td><td>74.9</td><td>74.5</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;"></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>[UPDATE2]</b><br />
Another run of the results, for jddogg and the redditors.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<table style="text-align:center"><tr><td colspan="6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td colspan="5"><em>Dependent variable:</em></td></tr>
<tr><td></td><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td colspan="2">plus</td><td colspan="3">totalMaps</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td colspan="2"><em>probit</em></td><td colspan="3"><em>negative</em></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td colspan="2"><em></em></td><td colspan="3"><em>binomial</em></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(1)</td><td>(2)</td><td>(3)</td><td>(4)</td><td>(5)</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left">Quantity</td><td>0.005<sup>***</sup></td><td>0.005<sup>***</sup></td><td>0.005<sup>***</sup></td><td>0.005<sup>***</sup></td><td>0.005<sup>***</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.001)</td><td>(0.001)</td><td>(0.0005)</td><td>(0.001)</td><td>(0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Level</td><td>-0.087<sup>***</sup></td><td>-0.090<sup>***</sup></td><td>-0.0001</td><td>-0.001</td><td>-0.006</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.009)</td><td>(0.008)</td><td>(0.004)</td><td>(0.005)</td><td>(0.005)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">magicInfo</td><td>0.001</td><td></td><td></td><td>0.001</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.001)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.001)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">rareInfo</td><td>0.003<sup>**</sup></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.002<sup>*</sup></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.001)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.001)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">packInfo</td><td>0.002</td><td></td><td></td><td>0.002<sup>***</sup></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.001)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.001)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">creatorjddogg</td><td>0.012</td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.079</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.089)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.051)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">creatormapsProj1</td><td>0.052</td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.014</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.065)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.040)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">creatormapsProj2</td><td>-0.010</td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.088<sup>*</sup></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.088)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.051)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">creatorpyrodan2</td><td>-0.003</td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.058</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.131)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.086)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">magicD</td><td></td><td>0.056</td><td></td><td></td><td>0.037</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td>(0.052)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.030)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">rareD</td><td></td><td>0.120<sup>**</sup></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.035</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td>(0.052)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.031)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">packD</td><td></td><td>0.092<sup>*</sup></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.069<sup>**</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td>(0.051)</td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.030)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Constant</td><td>5.308<sup>***</sup></td><td>5.565<sup>***</sup></td><td>0.262</td><td>0.283</td><td>0.603<sup>*</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.621)</td><td>(0.535)</td><td>(0.270)</td><td>(0.355)</td><td>(0.309)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left">Observations</td><td>4,777</td><td>4,782</td><td>4,782</td><td>4,777</td><td>4,782</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Log Likelihood</td><td>-2,838.709</td><td>-2,841.432</td><td>-7,760.944</td><td>-7,743.295</td><td>-7,758.142</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">theta</td><td></td><td></td><td>41.345<sup>*</sup> (21.765)</td><td>46.303<sup>*</sup> (27.188)</td><td>42.855<sup>*</sup> (23.340)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Akaike Inf. Crit.</td><td>5,697.418</td><td>5,694.863</td><td>15,527.890</td><td>15,506.590</td><td>15,528.280</td></tr>
<tr></tr>
</table>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-75542608099067822062014-04-07T15:07:00.003-07:002014-04-07T15:07:55.270-07:00[GW2] Server TransfersI've been tracking players on the <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2014/02/gw2-server-populations-and-achievement.html">GW2 achievement leaderboards</a>.<br />
<br />
The boards enable me to track when a player transfers off of a server: players that disappear from the boards - but have enough points to appear on them - have likely jumped ship. (Or, alternatively, been banned: I'm not sure what happens with the boards then.)<br />
<br />
I was able to track players on 23 EU servers for one month [February 20th to March 23rd]. In that month, I observed 1456 players that likely transferred servers. That makes a 0.2% chance that a top 1000 player server transfers on any given day - or - a 6.6% chance that a top 1000 player changes servers over the course of a month.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Caveat: some of my data collection was corrupted - from both my ISP (TimeWarner <glare>) and the ArenaNet website (the website got angst-y partway through my data collection). So I'm missing some servers. Take the resulting numbers with salt.</i></blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eFUXgnM6-xw/U0MXdp0oAII/AAAAAAAAAyc/UCz1eseCfKA/s1600/totalNum.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eFUXgnM6-xw/U0MXdp0oAII/AAAAAAAAAyc/UCz1eseCfKA/s1600/totalNum.png" height="372" width="640" /></a></div>
Transfers are highly clustered: on most days on most servers, at most one player out of the top 1000 transfers (65% of all server-days look like this). However, on some servers, on some days, large clusters of players leave the server (record observed: 57 of the top 1000 players left Underworld on March 20th).<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FRa18vhw730/U0MXphRmpzI/AAAAAAAAAyk/gHNKeBkPOGg/s1600/totalDay.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FRa18vhw730/U0MXphRmpzI/AAAAAAAAAyk/gHNKeBkPOGg/s1600/totalDay.png" height="256" width="640" /></a></div>
Transfers also differ by day: on March 7th, ArenaNet announced a reduction in the cost of server transfers starting on March 18th. This resulted in a considerable rise in the number of transfers. Before March 18th, an average of 1.9 top 1000 players transferred per server each day. After March 19, that number jumped to 4.7.<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table border="2" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3" style="text-align: center;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>Pre March 18</th>
<th>Post March 18</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gold</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>1.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Silver</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>9.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bronze</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>4.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
But while these transfers were designed to encourage players to move to lower-tiered servers, they had something of a bandwagon effect. After the update, very few top 1000 players left gold-tier servers. Most of the movement came from the Silver / Bronze tiers.<br />
<br />
<b>Thoughts</b><br />
I'm actually surprised at just how common server transfers are. Post-March 18, nearly 10 of the top 1000 players in Silver tier on every server changed servers each day. That is a remarkable change in the population of each server.<br />
<br />
I'm also not surprised that most transfers originate on Silver / Bronze servers. WvW match-ups on these servers can be frustrating, and it makes sense that players would seek a stronger world environment.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ttEmlqGLn3c/U0McBRgzq9I/AAAAAAAAAyw/hLhcHqUZL5g/s1600/serverPoints.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ttEmlqGLn3c/U0McBRgzq9I/AAAAAAAAAyw/hLhcHqUZL5g/s1600/serverPoints.png" height="274" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-42850087471903628162014-02-27T23:22:00.000-08:002014-02-27T23:22:23.650-08:00[GW2] Server Populations and Achievement ScoresAfter <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2014/02/gw2-back-and-marionette-success-rates.html">observing large differences in Marionette success rates across servers</a>, I've become interested in understanding a bit more about server populations.<br />
<br />
So the achievement point leaderboards were of particular interest to me.<br />
<br />
Players earn achievements by completing milestones, participating in living story events, and completing dailies. They're a great measure of player activity, since you get achievement points for just about everything. Even better, <a href="https://leaderboards.guildwars2.com/en/na/achievements">ArenaNet publicly tracks achievement points for the top 1000 players on each server</a>.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zvFB0GOHsdc/UxAjTIkgu3I/AAAAAAAAAxo/nO9SF8oP5BQ/s1600/firstView.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zvFB0GOHsdc/UxAjTIkgu3I/AAAAAAAAAxo/nO9SF8oP5BQ/s1600/firstView.png" height="384" width="640" /></a></div>
Here, I've plotted the achievement points of the top 1000 players on each server. The servers are organized by the average achievement point score of these players (highest top left to lowest bottom right), and colored by their WvW season 1 tier (gold / silver / bronze).<br />
<br />
There are vast differences between servers.<br />
<br />
As a snapshot, the leaderboards are interesting. But tracked over time, they contain much more information. For this, I collected data from the leaderboards during the Edge of the Mists update. This gives three measures of server activity: (1) transfers, (2) inactive players, and (3) points gained among the active players.<br />
<br />
<b>Server Transfers: Jumping Ship</b><br />
Server transfers show up on the leaderboards in two ways. A player could appear on one server, and later on another. So I can track accounts that move between servers.<br />
<b><br /></b>
Other players disappeared from the leaderboards. So, for example, if a player on Eredon Terrace had over 4217 points at the start of the Edge of the Mists update, they should appear on that server's top 1000 list unless they transferred off the server.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qMyLcpBGVkE/Uw75SewefwI/AAAAAAAAAxQ/38gXYz2VMFM/s1600/transfertByServer.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qMyLcpBGVkE/Uw75SewefwI/AAAAAAAAAxQ/38gXYz2VMFM/s1600/transfertByServer.png" height="212" width="640" /></a></div>
Overall, 1.6% of players listed on the leaderboards transferred servers. Given the small number of transfers from each server (and the reasonable expectation that some of the 'large' moves are due to guilds) it is hard to make a general pattern from the server transfer data, but I'll look at it again in future updates.<br />
<br />
However, of the transfers I observed, 84% are to servers with higher average achievement point scores than the starting server.<br />
<br />
<b>Inactive Players</b><br />
Overall, 17% of players on the server top 1000 didn't earn any achievement points during the Edge of the Mists update, and therefore likely didn't play GW2 during the update. Here are the percent of inactive players by server:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dYPPesYhsd4/Uw75cS1LlPI/AAAAAAAAAxY/SPOoZX_w3as/s1600/inactiveByServer.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dYPPesYhsd4/Uw75cS1LlPI/AAAAAAAAAxY/SPOoZX_w3as/s1600/inactiveByServer.png" height="212" width="640" /></a></div>
Inactive players are more common in lower-tiered servers, with the Bronze tier averaging over 23% of players inactive, compared to an average 12% for the gold servers.<br />
<br />
<b>Points Gained by Server</b><br />
During the two-week update, active players on the leaderboards gained an average of 170 points, around 12 points per day. Pretty impressive, considering that the daily requires only 5 points. (The average top 1000 player earned about one-third of the total possible points to be earned from living story / daily content.)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-15yn42b66us/UxAr9bNEjxI/AAAAAAAAAyA/p2RqNGxKoUo/s1600/pointGains.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-15yn42b66us/UxAr9bNEjxI/AAAAAAAAAyA/p2RqNGxKoUo/s1600/pointGains.png" height="424" width="640" /></a></div>
Across all servers, players with more achievement points earned more points than those with fewer points (rich get richer faster).<br />
<br />
<b>Several Thoughts</b><br />
By now, it is clear that there are large differences in server populations and activity. It is simply a myth that there are 'pve servers' that just happen to do poorly in WvW. Players tend to transfer to higher-tiered servers. Those servers have fewer inactive players. And the players on higher tiered servers tend to be more active.<br />
<br />
Time to think about a server transfer myself...<br />
<br />
Sidenote: the results presented here don't change under more complicated statistical models (which I ran, but excluded from the presentation because this is a long post already). Though, I did have to run a nonparametric model due to the interesting structure underlying the data.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-11500016196135754712014-02-25T21:46:00.000-08:002014-02-25T15:53:49.316-08:00[GW2] Professional VotingToday, Guild Wars 2 extended their <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/Collaborative-Development">Collaborative Development Initiative (CDI)</a> to ask players to <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/professions/balance/Collaborative-Development-Ranger-Profession/">post their feedback</a> on the ranger profession. (Note: 'professions' are what most MMOs would classes).<br />
<br />
Ranger was chosen in <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/professions/balance/Vote-for-the-Profession-Collaborative-Development/">this thread</a>, where the developers asked players to list 3 professions (in order of priority) they would like to see discussed first. But isn't choosing a profession based on posting in a thread open for 24 hours on the forum problematic? Particularly active forum users would be likely to overwhelm the thread. And its reasonable to expect that posters would be biased toward their own class, instead of looking out for game balance as a whole.<br />
<br />
So how reasonable was the thread as a method of getting feedback?<br />
<br />
The results:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OGAHiXhRmkI/Uw0sAUld_oI/AAAAAAAAAv8/zXq44tldxSc/s1600/voteByProf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OGAHiXhRmkI/Uw0sAUld_oI/AAAAAAAAAv8/zXq44tldxSc/s1600/voteByProf.png" height="320" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
Ranger was the most mentioned profession, followed by elementalist and then necromancer to round out the top three. Rangers are particularly weak in GW2's pve, and one playstyle (bearbow) is consistently viewed with scorn.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div>
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WHwK2wqgrp8/Uw0sIru8MvI/AAAAAAAAAwE/53yap_On8R0/s1600/votesByProfAndNo.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WHwK2wqgrp8/Uw0sIru8MvI/AAAAAAAAAwE/53yap_On8R0/s1600/votesByProfAndNo.png" height="100" width="200" /></a>Breaking down the votes by order of priority indicates that not only was ranger the overall top choice, it was most frequently listed as priority #1 by voters. Most of the ordering between professions remains the same.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
But are these votes contaminated by bias?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Prior Posting Activity</b></div>
<div>
One objection to this poll might be that not only are forums generally unrepresentative of player opinions, but frequent forum posters might be likely to overwhelm any thread. Hardcore and casual players might be expected to disagree on which professions need the most attention.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
While generally valid objections, they don't apply particularly well to this poll.</div>
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lflN9oF97Hs/Uw0sZODz5uI/AAAAAAAAAwM/bjzLbAEq-po/s1600/votesByProfAndHist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lflN9oF97Hs/Uw0sZODz5uI/AAAAAAAAAwM/bjzLbAEq-po/s1600/votesByProfAndHist.png" height="320" width="640" /></a></div>
For nearly 20% of voters, voting in this thread was their first post on the forums. For others, posting is a pretty frequent activity. Voters had an average 205 posts before the thread (with a maximum of over 4600 posts!). </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Curiously, however, prior posting activity doesn't change the results. Both first-time and prior posters overwhelmingly agree on their preference order, favoring rangers, elementalists and necromancers. (Though mesmers do a little less well among first-time posters).</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Profession(al) Bias</b></div>
<div>
Another way to look at the votes is to examine what other forums voters are active on. Players might be expected to be biased toward voting for their own profession, which could be reflected by their posting in profession-specific subforums.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div>
Here, I took a look at the past 50 forum posts of each voter (excluding first-time posters), and recorded whether they'd posted in one of the profession-specific subforums. I compared this against their listed vote preferences.</div>
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rc0nuHBCEOc/Uw0sjY7b2HI/AAAAAAAAAwU/DXU_m2mSues/s1600/profBias.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rc0nuHBCEOc/Uw0sjY7b2HI/AAAAAAAAAwU/DXU_m2mSues/s1600/profBias.png" height="320" width="640" /></a></div>
In general, the votes are only slightly biased toward forums voters are active in. For example, 30% of those who ranked elementalist as priority #2 had posted in the elementalist subforums, compared to only 15% of all voters. But this pattern doesn't hold generally. Those who picked engineer, mesmer, thief or warrior were no more likely to be active in those professions' subforums. So, in general, forum posting activity is at best weakly related to vote choice.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The exception - as ever - is rangers. While only 5% of voters had posted in the ranger forums previously, 45% of those who listed ranger as their top pick had posted in those forums. Among top choices, ranger is the only profession that shows such a strong pattern. However, even excluding these voters, ranger would still be the top pick.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Thoughts</b></div>
<div>
Clearly, a 24-hour poll isn't the best way to generate clear feedback on which profession requires the most attention. In this case, however, the ranger profession is so overwhelmingly in need of attention that the effect of these (otherwise valid) concerns is overwhelmed.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Fingers crossed for some pretty excellent fixes.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>Disclaimer: I have a ranger at 80, but I only use it to loot jumping puzzle chests since returning to GW2.</i></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-85582841718150947322014-02-11T19:28:00.001-08:002014-02-17T22:50:41.425-08:00[GW2] Back! And Marionette Success Rates<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BHdOSVogFfE/Uvrh6EpnvfI/AAAAAAAAAuQ/2skCSwzqxXA/s1600/GW2-Marionette.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BHdOSVogFfE/Uvrh6EpnvfI/AAAAAAAAAuQ/2skCSwzqxXA/s1600/GW2-Marionette.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Hello Tyria!<br />
<br />
We're back with a blast. After over a year without MMOs, I decided to take a quick check at what was new in GW2.<br />
<br />
... and quickly wandered into another data-driven gaming argument.<br />
<br />
In the <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/The_Origins_of_Madness">Origins of Madness</a> update, ArenaNet introduced two world raid bosses: The Twisted Marionette and a three headed Great Jungle Wurm. While the encounters have difficult mechanics, they're part of the open world - you simply cannot choose the other players you'll fight alongside. Since each boss has mechanics that make it possible for a single player to cause the whole server to fail the encounter, players have taken to <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/livingworld/madness/Well-I-defended-these-new-events-at-first/">complaining about the mechanics of both fights</a> on the forums (shocker!).<br />
<br />
I'm particularly interested in the Marionette because of <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/livingworld/madness/Well-I-defended-these-new-events-at-first/page/5#post3559127">this comment</a>, made by Josh Foreman (Environment Design for ANet), in responding to complaints about the fight's difficulty:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
if after a week the Marionette is still only being beaten 1 out of 10 times, then I would say we may have tuned it a bit too difficult.</blockquote>
That was 14 days ago. A week after he made that comment, I started tracking the success of the Marionette event via the GW2 API. The Events section of the api tracks the status of each event on every server, noting its outcome (success/fail). This gives me six days of data on Marionette kill attempts. Since the Marionette fight occurs once every two hours, that is data on just over 70 Marionette attempts.<br />
<br />
<b>The overall Marionette success rate for the past week is 6.6%</b>.
<ul>
<li>on North American servers the success rate is 6.1%.</li>
<li>on European servers the success rate is 7.0%.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>Server Population</b><br />
One issue with the Marionette is that the fight takes a large number of players to be successful. The fight is divided into five lanes, which are periodically divided further, into five platforms. <a href="http://dulfy.net/2014/01/22/gw2-twisted-marionette-boss-guide/">Most guides for the fight</a> mention 20-25 players per lane (100-125 players for a successful attempt), though a coordinated group could get by with less. So active, well-populated, coordinated servers should do better on this boss.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cWSFYgUnv2I/UvrlLe1JNBI/AAAAAAAAAvA/MjC2FpaQQMA/s1600/servers.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cWSFYgUnv2I/UvrlLe1JNBI/AAAAAAAAAvA/MjC2FpaQQMA/s1600/servers.png" height="320" width="640" /></a></div>
There are vast differences between servers. The top EU server (Desolation) succeeds on 63% of its attempts, and the top NA server isn't far behind (Blackgate - 59%). On the other hand, I have never observed a successful Marionette attempt on half of all servers (25 of 51 servers).<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TwlITMBDtY4/UvrlDTdpFGI/AAAAAAAAAu4/QXREWp4cm6A/s1600/serverRank.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TwlITMBDtY4/UvrlDTdpFGI/AAAAAAAAAu4/QXREWp4cm6A/s1600/serverRank.png" height="320" width="640" /></a></div>
As might be expected, servers with a higher WvW rank are much more successful at the Marionette. While top 5 WvW servers average a greater than 20% success rate, all other servers have a less than 5% sucess rate at the event.<br />
<br />
<b>Prime Time</b><br />
In addition to vast differences between servers, it matters what time the event is being attempted. NA primetime (starting at 7 EST) has a much higher success rate than afternoons (students getting off school?).<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p7Lc9N-Nc38/Uvrk5cwnV9I/AAAAAAAAAuw/fOE8hzkWe2Y/s1600/regionHour2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p7Lc9N-Nc38/Uvrk5cwnV9I/AAAAAAAAAuw/fOE8hzkWe2Y/s1600/regionHour2.png" height="320" width="640" /></a></div>
With this in mind, I have two caveats:<br />
<ol>
<li>GuildWars 2 has an overflow system, where if too many players are in a zone, an overflow server is created for any additional players that arrive (or several overflows, if need be). I don't have any information about what happens on these servers (or how many there are).</li>
<li>It could be that the GW2:Events API is not accurate. Completely unsuccessful servers are pretty shocking, so much so that I doubt the source. Then again, I do the Marionette at least once per day, and the outcome of each of those attempts is accurate, when I check against the data. </li>
</ol>
<div>
<b>Further Questions</b><br />
So what does this mean for events like the Marionette? <br />
<br />
Feedback based on a particular server (or time) isn't really representative of the experience of the event as a whole. Someone trying the event at 7 or 9 pm EST on Blackgate is virtually guaranteed a successful run. But there are 25 servers that I've never seen succeed at the event.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, vast differences between servers (and times) suggests that the fight isn't balanced across the wide range of situations GW2 players are likely to encounter. Hopefully, future events will be open to a wider range of the community, instead of being limited / exclusive content.<br />
<br />
Time willing, I'll take another look at the Marionette sometime this week, and see if I can break this apart even more.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-52487286782277692812013-03-12T17:39:00.002-07:002013-03-12T17:39:44.663-07:00[POE] Hardcore<br />
Time for some ARPG shenanigans.<br />
<br />
I've been playing Path of Exile.<br />
<br />
Its probably the best game I've picked up in a years. I could write pages and pages on why I love this game. The races. The skill trees. The complexity. But this blog is about being a video game data nerd, not persuading others to play awesome games. So instead: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NDFO4E5OKSE">a video</a>.<br />
<br />
Great, now that everyone is playing, here comes the data.<br />
<br />
Like most ARPGs, Path of Exile has a hardcore league. A single death kicks you out of the league, and into default. Since staying alive gets comically difficult, the hardcore league is super competitive. Players speculate on the best builds, watch the top characters, and get global announcements when a top 25 player dies. They debate <a href="http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/142482">whether duelists are viable</a>, <a href="http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/125070/page/2#p1212606">marauders overpowered</a>, witches death-prone...<br />
<br />
Of course, the best way to answer these arguments would be to track the progress of characters through hardcore, recording when they die, how quickly they gain experience, and whether class choice matters.<br />
<br />
Fortunately, the PoE website lists the top 15000 characters in the hardcore league. By periodically recording this information, I can get a timeline of characters, as the league progresses.<br />
<br />
<b>Classy Breakdowns</b><br />
Here is the breakdown of default and hardcore characters, by class:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6Ubws8trmWw/UTZuC_Z5R0I/AAAAAAAAAoE/4249c8IkLeQ/s1600/defaultVhardcore.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="228" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6Ubws8trmWw/UTZuC_Z5R0I/AAAAAAAAAoE/4249c8IkLeQ/s640/defaultVhardcore.png" width="640" /></a></div>
While witches are the most second-most popular option on default, they're the second-least-popular class in the hardcore league. Hardcore is dominated by Templars, Marauders, and Rangers. Duelists, who have the weakest starting position, are the least popular class in both leagues. (<a href="http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/213675">They've recently been buffed</a>, though.)<br />
<br />
But why are there differences between the two leagues? Is hardcore just harder for some classes? Are witches just too squishy? Or do players just prefer some classes over others?<br />
<br />
<b>Changing Classes</b><br />
Minimally, if hardcore was harder for some classes, you'd expect to see dramatic changes in the proportions of each class over time. So, if witches were really weak, at the start of the league there would be a ton of witches, they'd die, and the result would be fewer witches over time.<br />
<br />
Here is the distribution of classes over the past month.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9QigB-ucxbQ/UT_JaAp5e3I/AAAAAAAAAo8/6b783KmTBs4/s1600/classOverTime.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9QigB-ucxbQ/UT_JaAp5e3I/AAAAAAAAAo8/6b783KmTBs4/s640/classOverTime.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Over the past month, there have been small changes in the class distribution of players. Witches have increased their share, while duelists have steadily declined. Marauders have fallen in popularity, only to rise again. Rangers and templars have remained remarkably stable at the top.<br />
<br />
Overall, though, class proportions have remained fairly stable. This suggests that whatever imbalances exist, they are small, and being amplified via player choices.<br />
<br />
<b>The Final Death</b><br />
Another way to look at difficulty across classes is via deaths. If POE is harder on some classes, then those classes should die more. In particular, if a class is harder in the mid or late-game, then there should be relatively more deaths for those classes at the higher levels.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WXJ4-W79qJw/UT_JgrcVGiI/AAAAAAAAApE/R_5HxfUwlds/s1600/classDeathLevel.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="302" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WXJ4-W79qJw/UT_JgrcVGiI/AAAAAAAAApE/R_5HxfUwlds/s640/classDeathLevel.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Here, I'm looking at the average chance a character dies for every 15 minutes that they're online, by level and class.<br />
<br />
Overall, gameplay becomes less lethal as characters level up. Characters in the 60s are less likely to die (per minutes played) than characters in the 40s.<br />
<br />
While *slight* differences exist between the classes (witches die more frequently than rangers, for example), they're relatively small, and not large enough to explain overall class divisions on their own.<br />
<br />
There are, of course, other ways to look at differences between classes: experience gains, survival analysis, etc... but for the moment, I need to keep leveling in merciless difficulty. =DUnknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-42047832155802764782013-01-29T16:46:00.000-08:002013-01-29T18:27:05.152-08:00[GW2] Crafting Update - January<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-joYia8NTd9A/UQha4wkVoHI/AAAAAAAAAlE/i5f5fu6pgnk/s1600/janEnd_UpdateLegend2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-joYia8NTd9A/UQha4wkVoHI/AAAAAAAAAlE/i5f5fu6pgnk/s640/janEnd_UpdateLegend2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Time for another monthly update on the cost of legendary items in GW2. (First post <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/12/gw2-precursor-cost.html">here</a>, <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2013/01/gw2-crafting-update.html">update here</a>).<br />
<br />
Prices have steadily risen since my last look at the end of December. From December 29 to Jan 29th the average cost of crafting a legendary has risen by 170 gold, or just over 5.5 gold per day.<br />
<br />
Breaking down legendary weapons by type, I was surprised to find that the ranged weapons (Dreamer, Kudzu, and Predator) have risen in cost faster than the other legendaries, averaging a 240g increase over the past month. Visually, here is the rise in cost of each legendary weapon, excluding vendor materials:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-l0CkPcCtb8s/UQha6QO0EoI/AAAAAAAAAlQ/bDA-R0H683M/s1600/janEnd_breakdown.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-l0CkPcCtb8s/UQha6QO0EoI/AAAAAAAAAlQ/bDA-R0H683M/s640/janEnd_breakdown.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: start;">
Breaking down legendary weapons by their components, its still clear that - for most legendaries - the precursor is the predominant cost.<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vSHwNy4PZIA/UQha6T6DTrI/AAAAAAAAAlM/gPLVrXeqak8/s1600/janEnd_UpdateLegend.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vSHwNy4PZIA/UQha6T6DTrI/AAAAAAAAAlM/gPLVrXeqak8/s640/janEnd_UpdateLegend.png" width="640" /></a></div>
This is particularly unfortunate, given <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/Where-s-the-Scavenger-Hunt-post/first#post1190541">news that the precursor scavenger hunt would not be in the Jan/Feb/March update</a>.<br />
<br />
Looking across all legendary items, the relatively steady prices across the end of December were driven by a decline in the cost of most components offsetting a rise in the cost of Globs of Ectoplasm. Since then, while the price of globs has fallen, the cost of all other components has steadily risen, leading to an overall surge in prices each week.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7KrG6DT2Rqg/UQhsBapQ5VI/AAAAAAAAAlc/CWnvbdGLNZk/s1600/janEnd_byGift.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7KrG6DT2Rqg/UQhsBapQ5VI/AAAAAAAAAlc/CWnvbdGLNZk/s640/janEnd_byGift.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Happy hunting!<br />
<br />
If you have any other questions, leave a note in the comments / send an email, I'll see what I can find.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-54502933997041968972013-01-03T13:38:00.001-08:002013-01-03T13:38:33.301-08:00[GW2] Crafting Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ig2z12XHKtk/UOXgR-TJhJI/AAAAAAAAAjk/BT6p8JQoJwg/s1600/janUpdateLegend2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ig2z12XHKtk/UOXgR-TJhJI/AAAAAAAAAjk/BT6p8JQoJwg/s640/janUpdateLegend2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Its been <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/12/gw2-precursor-cost.html">a month since I wrote about hitting GW2's legendary wall</a>.<br />
<br />
Since then, I've continued to track the materials* cost of crafting a legendary weapon using price data from GW2spidy. As I noted in an earlier post, the cost of crafting a legendary rose by an average 9 gold per day in November. In December, while some legendaries rose in cost (Sunrise / Twilight cost another 200g), for others, the price held steady (Quip continues to cost around 600g to craft).<br />
<br />
Breaking cost down by component, the difference seems to be the cost of precursors.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0BpjuNmYIw4/UOXhBMUbgEI/AAAAAAAAAjw/LOrbBZ52DUg/s1600/janUpdateLegend.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0BpjuNmYIw4/UOXhBMUbgEI/AAAAAAAAAjw/LOrbBZ52DUg/s640/janUpdateLegend.png" width="640" /></a></div>
For each legendary, the components required to make the gifts have either stabilized or dropped in price (potentially due to ANet increasing the drop rates on many fine crafting materials). However, the precursor weapons have continued to rise in price, continuing to push legendary weapon costs higher.<br />
<br />
Still a bit beyond my price range / interest.<br />
<br />
<b>Crafting</b><br />
I've also continued to track <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/12/gw2-crafting-cost.html">the cost of following crafting guides</a>, broken down by fine materials and the other gathered components.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--_w6flSZGEM/UOXjGLquKYI/AAAAAAAAAkk/5cZWPQq5fyI/s1600/janCraft.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--_w6flSZGEM/UOXjGLquKYI/AAAAAAAAAkk/5cZWPQq5fyI/s640/janCraft.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Using <a href="http://www.gw2wiz.com/">GW2wiz's</a> guides, the price of leveling professions decreased during the first two weeks of December, and then increased over the last two, ending the month at the same cost it started. Most of the change comes from the cost of fine crafting materials.<br />
<br />
Of course, I probably shouldn't be using GW2wiz.<br />
<br />
I put this into an update on the last post - but just to be clear - <a href="http://www.errantquest.com/guild-wars-2">ErrantQuest's</a> crafting guides are slightly less expensive to follow. Redditor Xanthic has a <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/15szm9/dynamic_cooking_karma_edition_open_test/">dynamic cooking guide</a> that searches for the cheapest way to level the profession (again, much cheaper than the outdated guides).<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
*I'm omitting the vendor cost of a legendary, some 120g in materials.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-57745399768852447352012-12-04T17:26:00.000-08:002013-01-02T14:28:39.483-08:00[GW2] Crafting Cost<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CLk9I3ArDyE/UL6iAmZ_dQI/AAAAAAAAAjA/1EzWmIZINb0/s1600/gw207.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="308" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CLk9I3ArDyE/UL6iAmZ_dQI/AAAAAAAAAjA/1EzWmIZINb0/s640/gw207.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Crafting Costs: Even Scarier Behemoths</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>EDIT: Update 1/2 - instead of using GW2wiz, take a look at <a href="http://www.errantquest.com/guild-wars-2">ErrantQuest</a> for crafting guides. Much cheaper. For cooking, Xanthic has a <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/15szm9/dynamic_cooking_karma_edition_open_test/">dynamic cooking guide</a> (always chooses the cheapest route).</b><br />
<br />
One of my favorite features in GW2 is the ability to level a new alt entirely via crafting. Since each crafting discipline gives around 10 levels of experience, it is possible to level a character to 80 by advancing through each crafting profession. Leveling a new alt takes hours, not days.<br />
<br />
In the early days of the game, this was fairly inexpensive. Alternating between crafting, story quests, and hunting down skill points, I was able to level 4 alts to level 80 for about a gold per crafting discipline. Recently, I've become interested in leveling another character via crafting, but wondered how crafting costs have changed since the early weeks. <br />
<br />
To track the cost of crafting, I used crafting shopping lists from <a href="http://www.gw2wiz.com/">GW2 wiz</a> and price data from <a href="http://www.gw2spidy.com/">GW2 spidy</a>.<br />
<br />
Here is the cost of each crafting discipline over the past few weeks:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8DR3X7wy2lo/UL6g9ZjeaXI/AAAAAAAAAio/XFy_fFVsdCM/s1600/prof.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8DR3X7wy2lo/UL6g9ZjeaXI/AAAAAAAAAio/XFy_fFVsdCM/s640/prof.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Armorsmith, leatherworking, and tailoring have all dramatically increased in price over the past few weeks (and are much more expensive than I'd remembered!). Breaking down each craft by materials cost, the culprit appears to be the fine (blue-quality) crafting materials:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OKk146C7IYY/UL6hAhU09wI/AAAAAAAAAiw/mzmezr5UCz0/s1600/profMat.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OKk146C7IYY/UL6hAhU09wI/AAAAAAAAAiw/mzmezr5UCz0/s640/profMat.png" width="640" /></a></div>
While gatherable components (metal, leather, cloth) have held steady in cost, fine materials (scales, totems, blood,...) have risen at an alarming rate.<br />
<br />
The rise in crafting costs is distributed fairly evenly across all tiers of materials, though Tier 5 goods have increased in price more rapidly than Tiers 1-4.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4ELodLoz3IM/UL6hD5Gw3yI/AAAAAAAAAi4/8hSsmkktFWA/s1600/profTier.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4ELodLoz3IM/UL6hD5Gw3yI/AAAAAAAAAi4/8hSsmkktFWA/s640/profTier.png" width="640" /></a></div>
For the curious, over the past week, here are the average prices of leveling each crafting discipline:<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: initial; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></span><br />
<pre class="GJWPQFQDK4" style="border-style: none; line-height: 1.2; outline: none; white-space: pre-wrap !important;" tabindex="0"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">armorsmith artificer huntsman jeweler
7.80 8.69 9.30 7.59
leather tailor weaponsmith
7.23 8.65 10.06 </span></pre>
<br />
This leaves <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/148am6/chef_guide_0400_in_1_gold_and_2200_karma/">cooking</a> as the cheapest craft to level (estimated at 1g!), followed by leatherworking, jewelry and armorsmithing.<br />
<br />
Personally, it looks like I'll be leveling any new alts the old-fashioned way!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-21918613404798521032012-12-03T00:20:00.000-08:002012-12-03T00:30:03.305-08:00[GW2] Precursor Cost<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qltr44jchrU/ULxaUkPOWWI/AAAAAAAAAiI/IOAkspPmlBE/s1600/legendaryGift.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qltr44jchrU/ULxaUkPOWWI/AAAAAAAAAiI/IOAkspPmlBE/s640/legendaryGift.png" width="640" /></a></div>
I've hit "a<a href="https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/linsey-murdock-unveils-new-high-end-ascended-gear/"> Legendary wall</a>".<br />
<br />
Like many other players, I've hit the point where I'm interested in obtaining a legendary. Even my alts have exotic gear and ideal runes. What is left for the Tyrian with everything? A <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IKl0_iPyUQ">pistol that shoots fireworks</a>.<br />
<br />
Problem is,<b> the cost of obtaining a legendary is rising faster than most players can obtain gold.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I tracked the cost of 6 legendary weapons over the past month, using price data from <a href="http://www.gw2spidy.com/">gw2spidy</a>:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IejZJsNc48k/ULxaQIXdzKI/AAAAAAAAAh4/RsvWEVcWd5E/s1600/legendaryCost.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IejZJsNc48k/ULxaQIXdzKI/AAAAAAAAAh4/RsvWEVcWd5E/s640/legendaryCost.png" width="640" /></a></div>
While I've been watching the price, the cost of obtaining a legendary has nearly doubled. Quip has risen from 300 gold (Nov 1) to over 600 gold (Dec 2). The legendary greatswords (Twilight and Sunrise) have risen in cost by over 400 gold over the same time period.* On average, the price of crafting a legendary has increased by 9 gold every day.<br />
<br />
Even worse... with the Lost Shores patch, many of the items necessary to craft a legendary are also used to make Ascended gear (to gain agony resist in Fractals of the Mist). This has further increased the demand for those items... and therefore the price of a legendary. For example, the cost of obtaining Twilight has risen 19 gold per day since the Lost Shores patch, compared to 6.5 gold/day pre patch.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"> before after </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"> bifrost 4.38 13.94 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"> bolt 3.30 16.08 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"> quip 8.35 10.17</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"> rogdort 9.89 9.58 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"> sunrise 3.08 18.51</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"> twilight 6.48 18.99 </span><br />
<br />
In other words, with ascended gear driving up the demand for crafting materials, I need to make even more per day just to not lose progress.<br />
<br />
<b>What to do?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Purchasing items (instead of saving gold) is one way to reduce the problem of rampant inflation. (Its the gaming equivalent of hoarding goods.) But how much do I need to spend each day to make progress toward a legendary (instead of falling relatively behind)?<br />
<br />
To check this, I simulated the results of perfectly predicting future prices and planning spending accordingly.<br />
<br />
At 2 gold / day, I was an average of 272 days from each kind of legendary at the start of the month. At the end of a month of farming, I was 295 days from a legendary. At 3 gold / day, I only made 6 days of progress toward a legendary over the whole month.<br />
<br />
Due to price inflation, players need to earn and spend at least 5 gold per day to make a month of progress after a month of farming.<br />
<br />
<b>Sad times indeed</b><br />
<br />
The irony of this is that ascended gear was meant to "bridge the gap" between exotics and legendary items, providing intermediate-term progression goals for players dedicated to GW2. Instead, its <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/How-does-ascended-gear-bridge-the-gap">setting those players further back</a> on long-term goals.<br />
<br />
ArenaNet has promised changes to the process of making a legendary. Hopefully, they do more than just change the way precursors are obtained, and overhaul the entire system.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
*And this rise is despite the drop in precursor cost around Nov 18 from the Lost Shores final event (with its <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/archive/lostshores/Precursors-really/first">chance to give a precursor</a> from the final chest).Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-26684590577136434082012-11-14T14:00:00.000-08:002012-11-16T11:05:07.339-08:00[GW2] Precursor Gambling<iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/47865FYdQjw" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
I feel for this guy.<br />
<br />
On its own, a random number generator is not fair, moral, or kind. It is just random.<br />
<br />
Which is probably why RNG makes for such terrible gameplay.<br />
<br />
Much of GW2's endgame* focuses on the hunt for cosmetic improvements - legendary items with no stat bonus, but unique skins / animations. To keep these items rare, the precursor weapons to legendary items are low-chance results from mystic forge gambling.<br />
<br />
Using mystic forge gambling to obtain precursors is a <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/12wt2a/precursors_should_a_super_rare_drop_or_mystic/">controversial mechanic</a> (at best). The forums drama <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/crafting/Official-Response-Drop-Rate-of-Legendary-Precursors/first">has been fairly intense</a>. <strike>Fortunately, Arena Net heard the complaints and has some <a href="https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/linsey-murdock-unveils-new-high-end-ascended-gear/">(unfortunately vague) plans</a> to make obtaining a precursor both fun and legendary.</strike><br />
<b>UPDATE [11/15]: So far, they haven't provided an alternative path to get a precursor, just '<a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/info/news/Game-Update-Notes-November-15-2012">slightly increased the drop rate</a>'. Booo.</b><br />
<br />
But before the system is thrown into the dustbin of poor implementation, I wanted to take a moment and examine one reason why using RNG to gate progression is a terrible idea: the distribution of cost.<br />
<br />
<b>Luck and Cost</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Some players get a precursor on their attempt... while others throw thousands of items into the forge with no result. I want to visualize that difference.<br />
<br />
From the last post, I have a reasonable expectation that four rare items have a 20% chance of returning an exotic. I'm going to guess that this exotic has either a 1%, 1.3%, 2% or 4% chance of being a precursor. And I'll check three different ways of getting precursors:<br />
<ul>
<li>Plan 1: crafting rares, selling all exotic outcomes until a precursor is found</li>
<li>Plan 2: crafting rares, reforging all non-precursor exotics</li>
<li>Plan 3: crafting exotics, reforging all non-precursor exotics</li>
</ul>
<div>
Under these conditions, here is the estimated (average) cost of mystic forge gambling (in gold), using greatswords as a baseline, broken down the the chance for an exotic to be the precursor.**</div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 1.2; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 1.2; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 1% 1.3% 2% 4% </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 1.2; white-space: pre-wrap;">Plan 1: </span><span style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 1.2; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 1.2; white-space: pre-wrap;">210.83 150.80 101.67 51.83 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px; line-height: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Plan 2: </span><span style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 1.2; white-space: pre-wrap;">278.88 210.91 141.47 71.36 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px; line-height: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Plan 3: </span><span style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 1.2; white-space: pre-wrap;">693.11 524.63 346.16 174.87</span><br />
<br />
These averages are (generally) reasonable. Under these assumptions, even at a 1% chance, a precursor is around a 200g investment, making it expensive, but attainable.<br />
<br />
There are two things to note.<br />
<ol>
<li>Crafting exotics to obtain a precursor is three times as expensive as crafting rares. This doesn't necessarily mean that using exotics to obtain precursors is a bad idea. They might have 3x the chance of yielding precursors - its just that nobody has the data to find out. Fortunately, in terms of puzzling out why luck is a bad way to gate progression, this doesn't matter, so I'll focus on plan 1 & 2 from this point on.</li>
<li>Given the current price of precursors... either the precursors are much rarer than I've assumed, or using the mystic forge may be profitable even at current prices.***</li>
</ol>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Luck and Extreme Outcomes</b><br />
<br />
Average cost isn't the issue. Its the distribution of cost that is the problem.<br />
<br />
And that is where luck hurts players.<br />
<br />
Here, I've simulated the results of 5000 players using plan 1 to obtain a precursor from the mystic forge, varying the chance that an exotic is a precursor. I've plotted how much the luckiest 10% of players pay for a precursor by gambling, the unluckiest 10%, and two measures of the average player (mean and median).<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ejNDwPbf4bM/UKPy3ctpfrI/AAAAAAAAAgw/UfkXm8wK9iE/s1600/precursorGambleLog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ejNDwPbf4bM/UKPy3ctpfrI/AAAAAAAAAgw/UfkXm8wK9iE/s640/precursorGambleLog.png" width="640" /></a></div>
As precursors become harder to obtain (moving to the left), the average cost of creating a precursor for the unluckiest 10% of players grows exponentially. For example, if an exotic has a 1% chance to be a precursor from the mystic forge, the unluckiest 10% spend an average of just over 800 gold to get a precursor, compared to around 200g for the average player.<br />
<br />
And that is the problem with RNG: extreme outcomes.<br />
<br />
Extremes are great if you're lucky, but horrible for the person throwing gold away.<br />
<br />
A simple fix would be to institute a progressively increasing drop chance once a threshold has been exceeded. Great way to fix the discouraging luck issue.<br />
<br />
<b>Legendary design</b><br />
<br />
There are better ways to design legendary journeys.<br />
<br />
Both <a href="http://www.wowwiki.com/Shadowmourne">Shadowmourne</a> and the <a href="http://www.wowpedia.org/Fangs_of_the_Father">Fangs of the Father</a> questlines were fun, and helped add to the status of the item forged. Shadowmourne's components: <a href="http://www.wowwiki.com/Light%27s_Vengeance">reforged weapon of the biggest evil in the world</a>, hardened with the pure blood of an <a href="http://www.wowwiki.com/Yogg-Saron">old god</a>, drenched in the <a href="http://www.wowwiki.com/Quest:A_Feast_of_Souls">souls of the enemy</a>, and decorated with fragments of <a href="http://www.wowwiki.com/Frozen_Throne">the throne of evil</a>.<br />
<br />
Randomly throwing weapons at a genie just can't compete with that. (And the <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/134ha8/legendary_lore/">player-invented lore behind legendaries</a> is a reflection of that.)<br />
<br />
The problem with RNG is that players don't earn the item. Which cheapens it. And it cheapens the journey. Because there is no journey, just a slot machine. Imagine Arthur winning Excalibur at a casino. Not epic.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.arena.net/blog/guild-wars-2-design-manifesto">It isn't fun from moment to moment. Its preparing to have fun.</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
* Stuff-to-do at 80.<br />
** The choice of greatswords here doesn't shape the cost much - while the TP cost of precursors varies wildly, most weapons have approximately the same crafting cost. I'm also assuming that exotics are sold to market in Plan 1 for 1g.<br />
*** Of course, if they're rarer, then some of the cheaper precursors are tremendous losses.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com42tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-62469743278806967052012-11-13T11:17:00.001-08:002012-11-13T11:17:55.578-08:00[GW2] Demystifying the Mystic Forge<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-x_3gW8myEYc/UKFqOmljk6I/AAAAAAAAAfg/bnhCH51LzCU/s1600/zommoros.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="340" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-x_3gW8myEYc/UKFqOmljk6I/AAAAAAAAAfg/bnhCH51LzCU/s640/zommoros.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
As it turns out, the mystic forge is actually the genie <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Zommoros">Zommoros</a>. Strange new lifeform? Time for the asura to get investigating.*<br />
<br />
The mystic forge serves three purposes:<br />
<ol>
<li><b>Crafting via recipes. </b>Placing specific combinations of items into the forge will yield a guaranteed result. This includes <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_weapon">mystic weapons</a>, some of the <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Ilya_(weapon)">coolest exotic</a> <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Firebringer">skins in-game</a>, and <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Legendary_weapon">legendaries</a>. Unfortunately, Zommoros doesn't list recipes for the forge. They have to be discovered / looked-up on third-party websites (the wiki).</li>
<li><b>Upgrades of materials.</b> Common, fine, and rare crafting materials can be promoted into a smaller number of higher tier materials [<a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Forge">source</a>].</li>
<li><b>Gambling. </b>Placing four items into the mystic forge (of the same quality) will give one higher-level item, with chance to improve its rarity.</li>
</ol>
Fortunately, developer posts have noted that the mystic forge isn't affected by either <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/crafting/No-Diminishing-Returns-on-the-Mystic-Forge">diminishing returns</a> or <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/dungeons/Magic-Find-Chests">magic find</a>. This makes examining these mechanics considerably easier.<br />
<br />
I fed 2400 weapons into Zommoros to test out gambling, he gave me the data <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah20UYb4x73XdFV0UEdETXBOR2JUaGY4ejYxRU1tWFE&single=true&gid=4&output=html">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<b>Level Up!</b><br />
<br />
Placing four items into the mystic forge will yield a higher-level item. How many levels higher?<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8tw0de2rwbY/UKFpVmlILbI/AAAAAAAAAfI/c8kCT-uvNts/s1600/levelUp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8tw0de2rwbY/UKFpVmlILbI/AAAAAAAAAfI/c8kCT-uvNts/s640/levelUp.png" width="640" /></a></div>
On average**, the resulting items were 7 levels higher than the input items.<br />
<br />
The forge seems to use average item level for determining upgrades. Four same-level (even identical items) had the same average level upgrade as four items of various levels, but the same average item level.<br />
<br />
The pattern is the same regardless of input item rarity or level (usual stats-nerds tests applied).<br />
<br />
<b>Quality Nice.</b><br />
<br />
Both <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/12v3gz/is_there_an_indirect_way_of_selling_karma_for_gold/">comments on reddit</a> and the <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Forge">GW2 wiki</a> list a roughly 20% chance of upgrading rarity using the mystic forge. Sounds testable.<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tMkT7YXKDq8/UKFpZnt54rI/AAAAAAAAAfQ/3ClhhwnZDUE/s1600/qualityNice.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tMkT7YXKDq8/UKFpZnt54rI/AAAAAAAAAfQ/3ClhhwnZDUE/s640/qualityNice.png" width="640" /></a></div>
While four greens have an approximately 20% chance of yielding yellows, four blues have a 33% chance of yielding a green. (Usual stat nerd tests applied.) While they're included in the plot, since there are no yellow weapons below level 30, green weapons below level 20 have no observed chance of becoming yellow-quality weapons. I therefore excluded them from this analysis.<br />
<br />
Take the increased chance of upgrades from blues with a grain of salt. While it is exceptionally unlikely I observed this difference from chance alone, most sources list the 20% upgrade rate as gospel.<br />
<br />
Note: the drop-off in level 70+ greens is simply because I didn't record much data there. (Its expensive!)<br />
<br />
<b>A few notes on the mystic forge:</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Kamil234 examined mystic forge upgrades with dyes. I haven't tried it out, but <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/11q41d/mystic_forge_dye_experiment/">he recorded the results here</a>.</li>
<li>Agronaute threw 1400 rares into the mystic forge and got 71 exotics back (with no precursor) - a 20% quality upgrade rate. <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/11879a/more_legendary_precursor_crafting_research/">More here</a>.</li>
<li>NonTrivialPursuit <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/10rrup/results_from_50_rare_mini_forges_mini_pack/">forged 50 minis</a>.</li>
<li>Sub-75 average item level yellows <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/crafting/This-needs-to-be-addressed-Mystic-forge-and-Legendary-Pre-cursors/">no longer have a chance to yield precursors</a>.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
*Now 100% more ethical. Sorry Malomedies.<br />
**Well, I should say, on median. I - very rarely - obtained dramatically higher level items (up to 50 levels higher than the inputs). I'm guessing these are bugs. The items have no vendor value, and are soulbound on acquire. It looks like the item level of the result was just miscoded. Therefore, I excluded these from the analysis. More data required =D.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-60423302434857029122012-10-30T15:25:00.000-07:002012-11-14T11:54:18.444-08:00[GW2] Data Mining and Magic Find<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-R7xHiLEhR9c/UJBN-YdYmLI/AAAAAAAAAeY/8vCJJqpGY5I/s1600/gw176.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="360" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-R7xHiLEhR9c/UJBN-YdYmLI/AAAAAAAAAeY/8vCJJqpGY5I/s640/gw176.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
I've been busy data mining in GW2.<br />
<br />
This time, I was curious whether magic find affected the chance of getting gems from mining nodes.*<br />
<br />
I've seen plenty of <a href="http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/63319-magic-find-affect-gathering-of-gems-or-opening-chest-and-loot-bags/">questions</a> about magic find and gathering. I've seen <a href="http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/60798-magic-find/">speculation</a> on the topic. I've seen <a href="http://www.guildwars2forum.com/threads/11320-Magic-Find">assertions</a> given (<a href="http://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/166520/gw2the-new-thread-is-not-innovative-it-is-however-fucking-amazing/p43">many</a> assertions). But the <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Talk:Magic_find">wiki</a> isn't much help. And I haven't seen evidence.<br />
<br />
So I set about mining.<br />
<br />
Every day for the past two weeks, I took each* of my level 80 characters around Tyria gathering <a href="http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19701">orichalcum</a> and any mithril along the way. All characters used <a href="http://www.gw2db.com/items/23014-orichalcum-mining-pick">orichalcum mining picks</a> and had the guild gathering bonus. One character had 101% MF, the others only had the guild magic find bonus (10%). By the end, I gathered 1027 mithril and 1483 orichalcum.**<br />
<br />
Data can be found <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah20UYb4x73XdExSdC1RUVdyOTRLRGJBUXlwX3BqeWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html">here</a>.<br />
<br />
All told, I didn't see a difference in gems between different levels of magic find.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Node MF N Gem Chance</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Mithril 10%: 696 9.5% (1.1)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Mithril 101%: 331 9.4% (1.6)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Orichalcum 10%: 1065 12.0% (1.0)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Orichalcum 101%: 418 12.7% (1.6)</span><br />
<br />
While orichalcum nodes have a higher chance of yielding gems than mithril nodes, I see no difference in the chance of getting gems between 10% MF and 101% MF. (For the stats-nerds, checked with a probit.)<br />
<br />
Of course... this is a relatively small sample. So how likely is it that magic find affects the chance of getting gems from mining, but I just didn't notice it? (In stats-language, what is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_power">power</a> of the test, given expectations about the size of the effect being studied.)<br />
<br />
To check this, I simulated the results of gathering between 70 to 4200 mining nodes (increments of 70), assuming that magic find works multiplicatively. For each simulation, I checked whether I found that magic find had an effect. (I also included differences between node types, and recorded those.)<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-m050S6J9k7M/UJBRLcM4S_I/AAAAAAAAAeo/P78uTZMhMEo/s1600/mfMine2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-m050S6J9k7M/UJBRLcM4S_I/AAAAAAAAAeo/P78uTZMhMEo/s640/mfMine2.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
From the plot, its clear that after around 1500 mining attempts I'm nearly certain to find an effect from magic find, if one exists. At about 2500 mining attempts (the data I've collected), assuming magic find works, I'd have less than a 1% chance of observing no effect.<br />
<br />
<b>TLDR: magic find doesn't affect the chance of getting gems while mining.</b><br />
<br />
But, of course, I'll keep gathering data, and check back in if any results listed here change. Because science is the joy of revision.<br />
<br />
Related links:<br />
On this blog: <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/09/opening-bags-anti-bot-code-and-mf.html">MF doesn't affect bags</a>.<br />
From reddit: <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/10ibqg/salvaging_analysis_magic_find/">MF doesn't affect salvaging</a>.<br />
Dev: <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/dungeons/Magic-Find-Chests/first">MF only works on kills</a>.<br />
<br />
* Horray for leveling via crafting. I love going from 10 to 70 in like 2 hours.<br />
** Just to be safe, this data excludes any ruined ore / gems from ruined ore. Which is why neither total is divisible by 3.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-89831939199176958972012-10-15T19:39:00.000-07:002012-10-15T19:39:57.211-07:00[GW2] Basic Salvaging Mechanics<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rzb_AN6Pk7c/UHerC8-YSeI/AAAAAAAAAbY/GIEN1tN-NqA/s1600/nopants.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="268" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rzb_AN6Pk7c/UHerC8-YSeI/AAAAAAAAAbY/GIEN1tN-NqA/s640/nopants.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Many pants were lost in the creation of this post.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I love new MMOs.<br />
<br />
Even the most basic systems have new mechanics to puzzle out.<br />
<br />
Take salvaging (my <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/10/gw2-salvaging-scraps-which-kit-to-use.html">current</a> <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/10/gw2-small-salvaging-samples.html">obsession</a>): I've come to realize that there are so many features of salvaging I don't know a thing about. (And unfortunately <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Salvage">the wiki isn't of much use</a>.)<br />
<br />
As a result, I've salvaged virtually everything I've looted, and recorded the results. This wasn't enough data, so I started buying hundreds of items from the trading post. This left me with a set of just over 4000 salvaged items (predominantly with Basic Kits).<br />
<br />
Data can be found <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah20UYb4x73XdFhVdUpPZmRuRXA5NU5tMUI1bXR2TlE&single=true&gid=0&output=html">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<b>How much swag can be salvaged?</b><br />
<br />
The number of crafting materials I obtained from each item salvaged:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Jy8741TDy5w/UHyN9xU6OkI/AAAAAAAAAdg/cFCCCvkl48A/s1600/salvageByItem.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Jy8741TDy5w/UHyN9xU6OkI/AAAAAAAAAdg/cFCCCvkl48A/s640/salvageByItem.png" width="640" /></a></div>
For everything except chests, light and medium armor give an average of two items when salvaged (chests give three). Heavy armor returns about half the items (one item for everything but chests, two from a chest). Two-handed weapons return more items than one handers, which give about the same as offhand weapons.<br />
<br />
I don't find any evidence that the number of crafting items salvaged is influenced by<br />
<ul>
<li>the level of the item (checked visually and via various stats-nerdsy negative binomial regressions)</li>
<li>the rarity of the item (only enough data to test white vs blue at the moment, checked visually and stats-nerdsy)</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>How good is the salvaged stuff?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>Each <a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Crafting#Tiers">tier</a> of crafting material is salvageable from a range of just under 20 item levels.*<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-T2PXLmVVdkA/UHySYdJVa7I/AAAAAAAAAd4/R8IOXI1zth8/s1600/plot2post3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-T2PXLmVVdkA/UHySYdJVa7I/AAAAAAAAAd4/R8IOXI1zth8/s640/plot2post3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
From the graph, its apparent that only some items have a chance to be salvaged into higher-tier crafting components. For example, while a level 18 item can be salvaged into either T1 or T2 crafting components, I've only ever seen lvl 20 items salvage into T2 crafting components.<br />
<br />
The level ranges where I've noticed multiple possible tiers from salvaging are:<br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">T1/T2: 13-19 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">T2/T3: 27-33 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">T3/T4: 43-49</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">T4/T5: 57-63</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">T5/T6: 73+ </span><br />
<br />
Excluding T6 materials, I'm getting an approximately 17% chance of getting higher-tier crafting components from salvaging.** The T6 salvage rate seems closer to 10%. I need a bit more data to pin down the chance across tiers / within the level range for each tier.<br />
<br />
<i>Important note about salvaging kits: </i>if the bonus percent chance of rarer components from salvaging kits refers to the tier of the crafting material, then using 'better' salvaging kits outside of these level ranges... is probably a waste. (Either the base chance of higher tiers is absurdly low, or it just isn't possible).<br />
<br />
I don't find evidence that the tier of the crafting component salvaged is influenced by:<br />
<ul>
<li>The rarity of the item salvaged. A level 24 item appears to salvage into T2 crafting materials regardless of whether it is blue or white quality. (The probability of salvaging a higher tier also appears approximately equal between the white / blue items.)</li>
<li>The slot of the item (armor / weapon / chest...). More data is needed before this is conclusive, though - I haven't observed some items salvage into the higher tier within some level ranges.</li>
</ul>
<b><br /></b>
<b>The Unprofitable Salvaging Blues.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>As noted above, rarity doesn't change the number or tier of crafting items returned or give higher tier materials. As a result, it is often more cost effective to vendor blues and simply buy the desired crafting materials.<br />
<br />
Overall, comparing the prices of crafting materials at 11 am on 10/14 to the value of vendoring the item, I lost an average of 7 copper per each blue salvaged, and gained just over 9 copper for each white salvaged (before the AH cut). Factoring in the AH cut, blues were a 12 copper loss to salvage, while whites were a 5 copper gain.<br />
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By item level, the level 70-80 blues were the biggest loss to salvage. Middle-level white items were the most profitable.<br />
<br />
<b>Next up:</b><br />
With the basics sorted, the next step is to revisit looking at differences between types of salvaging kits. Unfortunately, this post is getting a bit lengthy, so I'll save more on salvaging kits for a follow-up.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
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*This graph excludes items salvageable into iron ore, which is both a tier 2 component (as iron) and tier 3 component (refined into steel).<br />
** This is using basic kits. If the chance is multiplicative, this suggests that the salvage rate without kit bonus is around 16%. But that is a topic for another post.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-46540681410246916732012-10-10T18:11:00.001-07:002012-10-10T18:11:22.563-07:00[GW2] Clawswitz: Still Alive, Still Reckless<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zKcQuyC_X4Q/UHXDqI41JDI/AAAAAAAAAa8/6uVdsk4mDD8/s1600/vistaclaws.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="360" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zKcQuyC_X4Q/UHXDqI41JDI/AAAAAAAAAa8/6uVdsk4mDD8/s640/vistaclaws.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">#3 on my list of places to not bring a hardcore character.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I'm something of a map completionist.<br />
<br />
Even on my alts, if I start doing a zone, I want to finish all of it.<br />
<br />
This has caused some problems with my attempts to <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/09/gw2-clawswitz-cautious-cowering-charr.html">take a character to level 80</a> without dying or crafting. Here, for example, is Clawswitz (the Cautious Cowering Charr) standing on top of a vista in Timberline Falls.<br />
<br />
Some falls from this tower are perfectly safe, and land you in water. Others send the character to a painful death on the scaffolding below. But that wasn't a big deal. Neither was the champion krait witch at the top of the tower.<br />
<br />
The problem was Krait Nimross - level 60 mobs with pull, bleed, immobilize, and <b>knockback.</b> They're strategically placed right at the top of the tower, along the one log you follow to the vista. I took one look, and wondered whether this would be the source of <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/09/gw2-culminating-point-of-defeat.html">another hilarious death</a>.<br />
<br />
Grrrrrr.<br />
<br />
Fortunately, Clawswitz survived the vista... by waiting for everything to path away, and being thankful nobody else was around to pull mobs randomly. He's level 65, and very much alive.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, he's also neglected - recently, most of my time online is salvaging or dungeons on my guardian for gold. Hopefully I can find some time to push him the last few levels. (Ideally, time without my ISP dropping out on me randomly. It went down on Saturday while I was killing separatists with Clawswitz. The couple minutes until it came up were... awful.)<br />
<br />
As far as hardcore challenges go, I'm not alone in the insanity - <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/10tiko/180_no_deaths_no_crafting_need_advice/">at least one other person</a> is trying for 80 without dying or crafting. (The OP in that thread hit level 70 without dying - so doing it better than I am!) A <a href="http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/67673-ranger-level-80-no-death-done/">ranger hit 80</a> without dying (but some crafting). And a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iBjXnK5_jg&list=UUf331AqpsFteQL6b2IVHs0w&index=2&feature=plcp">possibly-related youtube series</a> has another ranger working toward 80. Of course, there are a <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/Hardcore-Mode">couple skeptic threads</a> on <a href="http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/65935-have-anyone-reached-80-without-dying/">whether this is even possible</a>.<br />
<br />
Is it sick that part of me is wondering whether an <a href="http://wowironman.com/rules">ironman challenge</a> is possible?Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-7263335744612481362012-10-07T10:01:00.001-07:002012-10-10T11:44:27.493-07:00[GW2] Small Salvaging SamplesAfter paying an absurd amount of attention to salvaging rags, something of a consensus has emerged from the <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/support/bugs/Mystic-salavage-kit-of-getting-rarer-materials-is-broken">official forums</a>, <a href="http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/68588-from-rags-to-riches/">gw2guru</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFMOoRPlxPc">youtube</a>, and <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/111byy/salvaging_salvagable_items_and_whats_a_rare_anyway/">reddit</a> on how salvaging kits work. (I'm calling it basic chance theory after <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/111byy/salvaging_salvagable_items_and_whats_a_rare_anyway/c6itxwx">Zoodokoo</a>.)<br />
<br />
As noted in the reddit thread, one way to account for the minuscule differences in gossamer returns between salvage kits is that instead of increasing the amount of gossamer, the kit modifiers multiplicatively increase the chance for getting gossamer.<br />
<br />
So, supposing that gossamer has a base 11% chance of being salvaged from a rag, the chance of getting gossamer with each kit is:<br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Crude: 11% * 1.00 = 11.00%</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Basic: 11% * 1.10 = 12.10%</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Fine: 11% * 1.15 = 12.65%</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Journeyman: 11% * 1.20 = 13.20%</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Master: 11% * 1.25 = 13.75%</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">As I noted in the reddit thread, this would be entirely consistent with <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/10/gw2-salvaging-scraps-which-kit-to-use.html">the data I've collected so far</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
While it is great to have a theory to test (other than just "everything is consistent with a bug") there are two things that are troubling about this theory.<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">If the theory is correct, then most kits aren't worthwhile (<a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/111byy/salvaging_salvagable_items_and_whats_a_rare_anyway/c6ifvof">NeckNeckNeck's</a> observation).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Supposing gossamer is worth 3.5 silver (350 copper) and silk is worth around 20 copper. So getting 1 gossamer is a gain of about 320 copper. A 1% increase in the chance to salvage gossamer is worth about one hundredth that, or about 3.2 copper. Getting a 1% increase in the chance of getting gossamer compared to crude kits must cost less than 3.2 copper to be worthwhile.</span><br />
<br />
Therefore, assuming the base chance of gossamer is 11%, it is only worthwhile to upgrade to basic kits (for rags).<br />
<br />
The bigger trouble is that statistically verifying the theory is going to take absurd amounts of data. The effect sizes here are tiny. <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/04/companion-crit-crafting-bonuses.html">As I discussed elsewhere</a>, statistically verifying a tiny effect is tricky business.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-S3VQyEEuNjk/UHGx67zbBNI/AAAAAAAAAag/StmvpXEiXwA/s1600/effect2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-S3VQyEEuNjk/UHGx67zbBNI/AAAAAAAAAag/StmvpXEiXwA/s640/effect2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Here, I've simulated the results of 1000 different attempts at salvaging 2000 rags, split evenly between crude and mystic kits. For each attempt, I recorded the size of the effect that was estimated and whether it was statistically significant. Sadly, I only find a statistically significant effect 33% of the time. And when I do find an effect, its overestimated.<br />
<br />
What does it take to get it right?<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-W2NeHNDdaYc/UHGulHy5TCI/AAAAAAAAAaE/Amsl5zW1mVg/s1600/effectVSample.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-W2NeHNDdaYc/UHGulHy5TCI/AAAAAAAAAaE/Amsl5zW1mVg/s640/effectVSample.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Looking at different combinations of kits and sample sizes, its only after 10k salvages, or using absurd amounts of black lion kits, that results can be found reliably and accurately.<br />
<br />
I don't even want to think about how much gold that represents. (Dear ANet: can we get a Tyrian NSF going?)<br />
<br />
I'm taking a different approach. I've started to collect data on everything I salvage. I'm hoping that I can see a clear pattern where `rare' means 'higher tier of materials'. Hopefully, I'll also find a kind of item with a fairly high chance of being salvaged into the higher tier. This will make for a larger difference between the kits, and therefore something easier to estimate.<br />
<br />
Wish me luck!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-30786833835968574932012-10-05T00:21:00.001-07:002012-10-10T11:41:10.457-07:00[GW2] Salvaging Scraps: Which Kit to Use?<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OX0FLUZRkd0/UG5-7x1MSfI/AAAAAAAAAZo/s2U-5gQAfX4/s1600/gw117.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="80" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OX0FLUZRkd0/UG5-7x1MSfI/AAAAAAAAAZo/s2U-5gQAfX4/s640/gw117.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Apparently, science takes quite a few salvages (6k and counting...).<br />
<br />
After <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/09/opening-bags-anti-bot-code-and-mf.html">opening 1000 bags</a> to check whether they're affected by diminishing returns / magic find (spoiler: they aren't), I started wondering about salvaging. In particular, <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/10hwxh/salvaging_analysis_testing_for_antibot_code/">Lord Signis found evidence that "items may have their own rare salvage modifier value other than 1. (ie .52 from the item and .25 from the salvage kit means salvaging will yield rare materials 13% of the time) Further testing is needed."</a><br />
<br />
Challenge accepted.<br />
<br />
I bought 1500 <a href="http://www.gw2db.com/items/19534-rag">rags</a> from the trading post. Because I apparently have no desire to wear exotics. Ever.<br />
<br />
To salvage the rags, I purchased 500 <a href="http://www.gw2db.com/items/3591-crude-salvage-kit-s">Crude</a>, <a href="http://www.gw2db.com/items/13496-basic-salvage-kit-s">Basic</a>, and <a href="http://www.gw2db.com/items/13497-fine-salvage-kit-s">Fine</a> salvage kits. I recorded the number of silk and gossamer from each salvage, and appended this to Signis's data on 500 salvages with Mystic salvage kits.<br />
<br />
For reference: Crude kits have no listed chance of giving rare items, a 10% chance for Basic kits, 15% for Fine kits, and 25% for Mystic kits.<br />
<br />
Data can be found <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah20UYb4x73XdDJZWnRram9JSE5WMHk1Wk1PTjlCa0E&single=true&gid=0&output=html">here</a>.<br />
<br />
As before, I see no effect from the anti-bot code. Salvage away without diminishing returns.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QMRaWi5yVuA/UG58jNW-zII/AAAAAAAAAZY/3d3iMiIdopo/s1600/salvage2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QMRaWi5yVuA/UG58jNW-zII/AAAAAAAAAZY/3d3iMiIdopo/s640/salvage2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
The expected number of silk / gossamer remains the same, whether on the first 100 salvages, or the last 100 salvages.<br />
<br />
Visually, here is the average number of silk and gossamer from each salvage, by number of items salvaged:<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yK1kYcqIhgQ/UG58XVtqNpI/AAAAAAAAAZQ/UqY757MqRH8/s1600/salvage1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yK1kYcqIhgQ/UG58XVtqNpI/AAAAAAAAAZQ/UqY757MqRH8/s640/salvage1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The average gossamer yield from each kit was:<br />
Crude: 8.6% (1.3%)<br />
Basic: 13.0% (1.5%)<br />
Fine: 12.8% (1.5%)<br />
Mystic: 13.0% (1.5%)<br />
<br />
(Standard errors in parenthesis.)<br />
<br />
So, while crude kits had an 8.6% chance of gossamer, all other kits had a 13% chance.<br />
<br />
While it is always possible that I was exceptionally unlucky with crude kits... it is exceptionally unlikely. The probability that I'd observe gossamer 8.6% of the time, when the true chance was 13%... is about 2%. So possible. But not likely.<br />
<br />
This contrasts with the claims in <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NUU4elvMmr8#t=1020s">this video</a> of "100% certainty" that crude and mystic have identical salvage rates. Hopefully he'll be willing to share the data, and I can take a look at what is going on.<br />
<br />
The crude kits leave me a little baffled. Without them, I'd say that gossamer had a 13% chance of being salvaged from a rag and that kits don't matter. With them... kits matter (at least on the choice of crude vs non-crude). But the rate doesn't match what is listed on the item. Hopefully I can salvage these results over the weekend. I've put in more orders for rags to check whether my crude data is just an unlucky draw, and started to collect other salvageable items to check those too.<br />
<br />
<b>TLDR: Salvaging rags with Basic, Fine and Mystic kits has a 13% chance of giving gossamer. Crude kits have an 8% chance. More testing required.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Update: I've done another 500 salvages with crude kits... still at about 8.7%. Now going to check other materials. I've decided to make it clearer that the I'm presenting standard errors of the means here, because otherwise I find +/- ambiguous / unfounded.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-2149140102387978722012-10-01T20:15:00.006-07:002012-10-01T20:15:54.087-07:00[GW2] Beautiful Square Peg, Tired Round Hole<iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/HTF9T4oQ480" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
<a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/10ps4q/caraemm_slowing_down_can_change_the_game/">Source</a>.<br />
<br />
Sometimes, reading some of the <a href="http://syncaine.com/2012/09/24/gw2-one-step-forward-two-steps-back-for-the-genre/">more negative reviews of GW2</a>, I'm convinced the author and I are playing a different game. And its because we are.<br />
<br />
"How you play the game can completely change the perception you get of it." The conditioning players have experienced in other MMOs often causes them to miss some of the most amazing bits of GW2. And the game isn't showing them another way to play.<br />
<br />
Take combat.<br />
<br />
Plenty of MMOs have conditioned players to believe that difficulty is defined by how complex the priority system / rotation is for the class. (Looking at you, feral cat <a href="http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1141849-Cat-are-feral-cats-hard-to-dps-with">John F* Madden</a>.) MAX DPS is a solo endeavor. Learn a rotation. Do it well. And do it on every single boss. Ok, maybe coordinate some cooldowns from time to time.<br />
<br />
So GW2 - where there isn't really a rotation - seems simple. Individual damage can be max'd by hitting 1. Sometimes 2. Keep up buffs. Dodge stuff that hits hard. Stay out of the fire. Standard MMO fare, but with easier button pushing.<br />
<br />
But underneath that simplicity is a devilishly complex - and social - difficulty: coordinating combo fields and finishers.<br />
<br />
For example, using a blast finisher in a fire field gives might to everyone in the area. So 8 blast finishers = 24 stacks of might (25 is the cap). Which is 720 power / condition damage. Which is about one-third to half of the total power/condition damage of someone stacking that stat. For everyone in the group.<br />
<br />
Thing is, one person can't lay down the field and use 8 blast finishers quickly. That takes coordination. So difficulty is now social and coordinated, not individual.<br />
<br />
So...<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="http://syncaine.com/2012/09/24/gw2-one-step-forward-two-steps-back-for-the-genre/">You will literally be hitting the same buttons over and over again, brainlessly, and not only will you succeed, but you will actually perform at almost max efficiency.</a></blockquote>
Well, you could do that. But max efficiency? Not so much. While our guild initially thought explorables were a bit rough, learning to use these combos<a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/dungeons/Do-NOT-nerf-please/first#post126835"> like the devs suggested</a> made runs both easy and short. To be fair, since GW2 does next to nothing to teach players how to effectively use combo fields, its all too easy to dismiss combat as trivial. (<a href="http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Combo">I have to look them up</a>.)<br />
<br />
The same is true of the game world.<br />
<br />
MMOs have conditioned players to expect that the UI will direct them where to go. No talking with NPCs to find hidden stuff. No clicking statues. Definitely no reading. Its a pretty fun way to play. But in GW2, its also a way to miss a ton of really fun stuff.<br />
<br />
For me, it took the constant impending peril of death to make me realize GW2 is a little bit different.<br />
<br />
I started to notice things, so I went back on my main.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PPyalRzMzEI/UGpVC7vCa9I/AAAAAAAAAY0/bj2ld6JdQ48/s1600/gw107.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PPyalRzMzEI/UGpVC7vCa9I/AAAAAAAAAY0/bj2ld6JdQ48/s320/gw107.jpg" width="320" /></a>Harathi Hinterlands has a statue. I'd learned from other statues that /kneel can yield buffs. Charr need no gods... but every cat loves its belly scratched.<br />
<br />
So I light the candle, and kneel. Ghost pops up, tells a cool story, and directs me to start an event. Event is awesome! And just sitting there. Waiting for anyone ready to observe the world around them. (Cara Emm's video above does so much more to detail this.)<br />
<br />
Its not just events. Its all those vendors I've been ignoring. <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/10qywq/abusing_consumables_a_guide/">Fleetze has a great post</a> listing some fun and useful consumables found around the world. Summonable ranger pets for all. Instant vanish. Knockdowns. Fire fields. I'm probably going to lose half my gold porting to every vendor in the game and clicking the junk they have for sale, just to see if its actually useful. Oh goodness, did I just become a skritt?<br />
<br />
For just for a little more willingness to explore, I've found so much more depth to the game.<br />
<br />
Time for some sage quaggan advice:<br />
<br />
ooooOOOOoooo Quaggan thinks you should smell the roses, maybe? ooooOooOOOOoooUnknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-28791243693183845992012-09-28T13:34:00.000-07:002012-11-14T11:54:57.709-08:00[GW2] Opening Bags: the Anti-Bot Code and MF<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MzaPhGET9GM/UGXzRWXEktI/AAAAAAAAAYY/wpjr_csH67c/s1600/gw029.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="360" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MzaPhGET9GM/UGXzRWXEktI/AAAAAAAAAYY/wpjr_csH67c/s640/gw029.jpg" title="The Eternal Alchemy: some assembly required" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/">Guild Wars 2 subreddit</a> has been invaded by science, and I love it.<br />
<br />
Recording the results of 500 rag salvages, Lord Signis <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/10hwxh/salvaging_analysis_testing_for_antibot_code/">found that salvaging items isn't affected by the anti-bot code</a>. Marko did a similar setup, and found that <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/10ibqg/salvaging_analysis_magic_find/">salvaging isn't influenced by magic find</a>.<br />
<br />
This got me thinking: what about loot bags?<br />
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<b>TL;DR: </b><b>The loot obtained from opening bags isn't influenced by either magic find or the anti-bot farming code.</b><br />
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<b>Setup:</b><br />
In order to obtain a desirable sample size, I grabbed 1000 Bags of Pinched Goods from the Trading Post.<br />
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Doing this has one significant drawback. I'm essentially assuming that loot is determined at the time I open the bag, not at the time the bag is generated. I'm really hopeful that ANet decided to save on storage space. [Further testing required... its something I'm working on.]<br />
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On the upside, It felt like Asuran Christmas. With fewer explosions.<br />
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Controls:<br />
<ul>
<li>The first set of 500 bags was opened with 0% MF after a day of opening no bags.</li>
<li>The second set of 500 bags was opened with 111% MF 24 hours later. (MF sources: 30 on jewelry, 53 on runes, 18 on gear, 10 from guild bonus)</li>
<li>I stood in the same place without moving on each run.</li>
<li>The bags were opened at 7pm EST 9/26 and 7pm EST 9/27.</li>
</ul>
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<b>Results:</b></div>
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Raw data can be accessed on <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah20UYb4x73XdEM5Sk83eTlMamtEZ2Q1amtXZlRXWHc&single=true&gid=0&output=html">this spreadsheet</a>.</div>
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Each bag has a chance to contain a gathering tool (ex: axes, mining picks), a cooking item (butter, blueberries, blue meats), white crafting components (cloth/leather), or blue crafting components (claws, totems, etc). In what follows, I'll break those categories down into gathering tools, white crafting materials, and blue crafting materials. I'll note whether the items are cooking components or not.<br />
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<b>The Anti-bot Code</b>.</div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-P9S2FiKmMrU/UGXsOJUAP0I/AAAAAAAAAXc/zqOYGFGM5Gs/s1600/numberAndType2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-P9S2FiKmMrU/UGXsOJUAP0I/AAAAAAAAAXc/zqOYGFGM5Gs/s640/numberAndType2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The number of items contained within each bag does not decrease as more bags are opened.<br />
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For example, taking a look at the blue line in the center panel, across all 500 bags, if the bag contained butter, it averaged just under 4 butter. This was as true for the first 100 bags as it was the last 500 bags. The order the bag was opened didn't change the amount of loot inside. [For the more stats-minded, the order the bags were opened was not statistically significant across several specifications of negative binomial regressions.]</div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4Ror7wSHwWM/UGXyFqcWl7I/AAAAAAAAAYQ/OJKJpBV2gho/s1600/probRare.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4Ror7wSHwWM/UGXyFqcWl7I/AAAAAAAAAYQ/OJKJpBV2gho/s320/probRare.png" width="320" /></a></div>
The chance a bag contains a white vs blue item does not change as more bags are opened. Here, following Lord Signis, I'm taking a look at the change in the probability that an item contains a blue crafting material as the number of bags opens increases. While I had a run of good luck at the beginning, and a spot of rough luck around 250 bags, its fairly clear that the probability of a blue item hovers around 50%.<br />
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[Again for the more stats-minded, I confirmed this with a few specifications of probits of blue vs white on order with various controls.]<br />
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Based on the the first set of 500 bags, I didn't find any evidence that the anti-bot code changes the rewards from bag opening.<br />
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<b>Magic find results</b>. Here, I'm comparing the results of the first 500 bags (discussed above) to a second set of 500 bags I opened under identical conditions, 24 hours later, this time with 111% magic find.<br />
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<table border="2" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3" style="text-align: center;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: left;"><b>Cooking Materials</b> </td>
<td>0% Magic Find</td>
<td>111% Magic Find</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Butter </td>
<td>317 </td>
<td>324 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Blue</td>
<td>16 </td>
<td>18 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>White</td>
<td>24 </td>
<td>23 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: left;"><b>Non-Cooking Materials</b> </td>
<td>0% Magic Find</td>
<td>111% Magic Find</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Blue</td>
<td>224 </td>
<td>231 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>White</td>
<td>259 </td>
<td>254 </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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Not only is the difference between the two runs absurdly small, the difference isn't statistically significant. I only obtained seven additional non-crafting blues with 111% magic find - a 3% difference between the two samples, which is well within the margin of error (approximately +/- 4%).<br />
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<b>Again, the punchline: the quality and amount of loot from bags isn't affected by either magic find or the anti-bot farming code.</b><br />
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<b>Update: </b>dev post - <a href="https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/dungeons/Magic-Find-Chests/first">MF only works on kills</a>.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3707557584922144451.post-39079793333062614972012-09-25T14:13:00.000-07:002012-09-25T14:13:44.174-07:00[GW2] The Culminating Point of Defeat<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jNz4jfTaowY/UGIPYp0yU-I/AAAAAAAAAWw/1R6gaEEYDqU/s1600/ghostclaws.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="382" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jNz4jfTaowY/UGIPYp0yU-I/AAAAAAAAAWw/1R6gaEEYDqU/s640/ghostclaws.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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I've realized one very important thing in my <a href="http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/09/gw2-clawswitz-cautious-cowering-charr.html">never-dying challenge</a>. My subconscious gamer is better at staying alive than I am.<br />
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In the back of my mind, I keep thinking that after setting myself a goal of hitting level 80 without dying (or crafting), it'd only be sensible to play defensively and cautiously.<br />
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I promptly ignore this voice.<br />
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Instead, I'm running around with a greatsword, offensive traits, mostly offensive utilities. No survivability on my gear. And a big helping of stupid.<br />
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This has led to some rather predictable results.<br />
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Clawswitz Sr. At level 10 I encountered a 5-pack of level 14 mobs (two ogres and their pets). Charging in, I remember thinking that "this is probably a bad idea". It was. They were being leashed, and so their health was increasing. I fled... straight into a destroyer. One poison bolt later, I was back to character creation. And I take <i>forever</i> at the character creation screen.<br />
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Clawswitz II died in Hoelbrak. At a vista. Just after getting there, I thought "maybe I should go down the safe way". And then, I jumped... to his death. Not the brightest idea.<br />
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Clawswitz III died doing the dolak capture quest in Wayfarer Foothills. Yes, the one where all you do is shoot nets. I hadn't seen skelk there before. When 6 popped up on a calf, I charged into attack. They roflstomped me.<br />
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After Clawswitz III, I finally decided to to be sensible about things.<br />
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Clawswitz IV is a defensive powerhouse. Traits, utilities, even gear. All defensive. Its amazing. Veterans can't even dent the health bar. Regen keeps him topped.<br />
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It is amazing to me that just changing traits and gear - while keeping the same weapon - makes for a completely different playstyle. My level 20 signet-build warrior has 95% crit. Touch a mob, it explodes. Pull several... I explode. Swap to defensive. The greatsword is now a glorified whittling knife. But it doesn't matter. I'm virtually invincible.<br />
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And I love that about GW2.<br />
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I'm finally making real choices about survival vs offense. I can go defensive... but that makes any fight so much longer. Trait and utility choices can cover some weaknesses, but my character always has vulnerabilities. And nearly everyone makes different decisions about these tradeoffs... so there are a much wider range of gameplay choices / specs than I've experienced in any MMO.<br />
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But don't worry, I'll find something hilarious to die to any minute now...Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0